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Title: Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin, Volume XIV; Evaluation of 2006 Prediction of the Run-Timing of Wild and Hatchery-Reared Salmon and Steelhead at Rock Island, Lower Granite, McNary, John Day and Bonneville Dams using Program Real Time, Technical Report 2006.

Abstract

Program RealTime provided monitoring and forecasting of the 2006 inseason outmigrations via the internet for 32 PIT-tagged stocks of wild ESU chinook salmon and steelhead to Lower Granite and/or McNary dams, one PIT-tagged hatchery-reared ESU of sockeye salmon to Lower Granite Dam, and 20 passage-indexed runs-at-large, five each to Rock Island, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams. Twenty-four stocks are of wild yearling chinook salmon which were captured, PIT-tagged, and released at sites above Lower Granite Dam in 2006, and have at least one year's historical migration data previous to the 2006 migration. These stocks originate in drainages of the Salmon, Grande Ronde and Clearwater Rivers, all tributaries to the Snake River, and are subsequently detected through the tag identification and monitored at Lower Granite Dam. In addition, seven wild PIT-tagged runs-at-large of Snake or Upper Columbia River ESU salmon and steelhead were monitored at McNary Dam. Three wild PIT-tagged runs-at-large were monitored at Lower Granite Dam, consisting of the yearling and subyearling chinook salmon and the steelhead trout runs. The hatchery-reared PIT-tagged sockeye salmon stock from Redfish Lake was monitored outmigrating through Lower Granite Dam. Passage-indexed stocks (stocks monitored by FPC passage indices) included combined wild and hatchery runs-at-largemore » of subyearling and yearling chinook, coho, and sockeye salmon, and steelhead trout forecasted to Rock Island, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams.« less

Authors:
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), Portland, OR (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
963283
Report Number(s):
DOE/BP-00025093-2
TRN: US200917%%498
DOE Contract Number:
25093
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
13 HYDRO ENERGY; COLUMBIA RIVER; DAMS; EVALUATION; FORECASTING; GRANITES; INTERNET; LAKES; MONITORING; RIVERS; SALMON; TROUT

Citation Formats

Griswold, Jim. Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin, Volume XIV; Evaluation of 2006 Prediction of the Run-Timing of Wild and Hatchery-Reared Salmon and Steelhead at Rock Island, Lower Granite, McNary, John Day and Bonneville Dams using Program Real Time, Technical Report 2006.. United States: N. p., 2007. Web. doi:10.2172/963283.
Griswold, Jim. Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin, Volume XIV; Evaluation of 2006 Prediction of the Run-Timing of Wild and Hatchery-Reared Salmon and Steelhead at Rock Island, Lower Granite, McNary, John Day and Bonneville Dams using Program Real Time, Technical Report 2006.. United States. doi:10.2172/963283.
Griswold, Jim. Mon . "Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin, Volume XIV; Evaluation of 2006 Prediction of the Run-Timing of Wild and Hatchery-Reared Salmon and Steelhead at Rock Island, Lower Granite, McNary, John Day and Bonneville Dams using Program Real Time, Technical Report 2006.". United States. doi:10.2172/963283. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/963283.
@article{osti_963283,
title = {Monitoring and Evaluation of Smolt Migration in the Columbia Basin, Volume XIV; Evaluation of 2006 Prediction of the Run-Timing of Wild and Hatchery-Reared Salmon and Steelhead at Rock Island, Lower Granite, McNary, John Day and Bonneville Dams using Program Real Time, Technical Report 2006.},
author = {Griswold, Jim},
abstractNote = {Program RealTime provided monitoring and forecasting of the 2006 inseason outmigrations via the internet for 32 PIT-tagged stocks of wild ESU chinook salmon and steelhead to Lower Granite and/or McNary dams, one PIT-tagged hatchery-reared ESU of sockeye salmon to Lower Granite Dam, and 20 passage-indexed runs-at-large, five each to Rock Island, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams. Twenty-four stocks are of wild yearling chinook salmon which were captured, PIT-tagged, and released at sites above Lower Granite Dam in 2006, and have at least one year's historical migration data previous to the 2006 migration. These stocks originate in drainages of the Salmon, Grande Ronde and Clearwater Rivers, all tributaries to the Snake River, and are subsequently detected through the tag identification and monitored at Lower Granite Dam. In addition, seven wild PIT-tagged runs-at-large of Snake or Upper Columbia River ESU salmon and steelhead were monitored at McNary Dam. Three wild PIT-tagged runs-at-large were monitored at Lower Granite Dam, consisting of the yearling and subyearling chinook salmon and the steelhead trout runs. The hatchery-reared PIT-tagged sockeye salmon stock from Redfish Lake was monitored outmigrating through Lower Granite Dam. Passage-indexed stocks (stocks monitored by FPC passage indices) included combined wild and hatchery runs-at-large of subyearling and yearling chinook, coho, and sockeye salmon, and steelhead trout forecasted to Rock Island, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams.},
doi = {10.2172/963283},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2007},
month = {Mon Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2007}
}

Technical Report:

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  • Program RealTime provided monitoring and forecasting of the 2007 inseason outmigrations via the internet for 26 PIT-tagged stocks of wild ESU Chinook salmon and steelhead to Lower Granite and/or McNary dams, one PIT-tagged hatchery-reared ESU of sockeye salmon to Lower Granite Dam, one PIT-tagged wild stock of sockeye salmon to McNary Dam, and 20 passage-indexed runs-at-large, five each to Rock Island, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville dams. Nineteen stocks are of wild yearling Chinook salmon which were captured, PIT-tagged, and released at sites above Lower Granite Dam in 2007 and have at least one year's historical migration data previous tomore » the 2007 migration. These stocks originate in 19 tributaries of the Salmon, Grande Ronde and Clearwater Rivers, all tributaries to the Snake River, and are subsequently detected through tag identification and monitored at Lower Granite Dam. Seven wild PIT-tagged runs-at-large of Snake or Upper Columbia River ESU salmon and steelhead were monitored at McNary Dam. Three wild PIT-tagged runs-at-large were monitored at Lower Granite Dam, consisting of the yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon and the steelhead runs. The hatchery-reared PIT-tagged sockeye salmon stock from Redfish Lake was monitored outmigrating through Lower Granite Dam. Passage-indexed stocks (stocks monitored by FPC passage indices) included combined wild and hatchery runs-at-large of subyearling and yearling Chinook, coho, and sockeye salmon, and steelhead forecasted to Rock Island, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville dams.« less
  • Program RealTime provided tracking and forecasting of the 2001 inseason outmigration via the internet for eighteen PIT-tagged stocks of wild salmon and steelhead to Lower Granite and/or McNary dams and eleven passage-indexed stocks to Rock Island, McNary, or John Day dams. Nine of the PIT-tagged stocks tracked this year were new to the project. Thirteen ESUs of wild subyearling and yearling chinook salmon and steelhead, and one ESU of hatchery-reared sockeye salmon were tracked and forecasted to Lower Granite Dam. Eight wild ESUs of subyearling and yearling chinook salmon, sockeye salmon and steelhead were tracked to McNary Dam for themore » first time this year. Wild PIT-tagged ESUs tracked to Lower Granite Dam included yearling spring/summer chinook salmon release-recovery stocks (from Bear Valley Creek, Catherine Creek, Herd Creek, Imnaha River, Johnson Creek, Lostine River, Minam River, South Fork Salmon River, Secesh River, and Valley Creek), PIT-tagged wild runs-at-large of yearling chinook salmon and steelhead, and a PIT-tagged stock of subyearling fall chinook salmon. The stock of hatchery-reared PIT-tagged summer-run sockeye salmon smolts outmigrating to Lower Granite Dam, consisted this year of a new stock of fish from Alturas Lake Creek, Redfish Lake Creek Trap and Sawtooth Trap. The passage-indexed stocks, counted using FPC passage indices, included combined wild- and hatchery-reared runs-at-large of subyearling and yearling chinook, coho, and sockeye salmon, and steelhead migrating to Rock Island and McNary dams, and, new this year, combined wild and hatchery subyearling chinook salmon to John Day Dam. Unusual run-timing and fish passage characteristics were observed in this low-flow, negligible-spill migration year. The period for the middle 80% of fish passage (i.e., progress from the 10th to the 90th percentiles) was unusually short for nine out of ten PIT-tagged yearling spring/summer chinook salmon stocks tracked to Lower Granite Dam. It was the shortest on record for seven of these ten stocks. The nine stocks recording unusually short middle 80% periods also recorded higher-than-average recovery percentages. However the opposite trend was observed for the PIT-tagged wild subyearling chinook salmon and hatchery sockeye salmon stocks whose middle 80% period of passage to Lower Granite Dam was average to above average. Recovery percentages for these two stocks were average, compared to historical recoveries. The performance results of Program RealTime to make accurate predictions of percentiles of fish passage at an index site were mixed this year. The release-recovery stocks of wild PIT-tagged spring/summer chinook salmon tracked to Lower Granite Dam were predicted less accurately than usual, on average, with two exceptions. One of these exceptions was a stock that had its best prediction (first-half, last-half, and season-wide) ever to occur. On average, however, performance was down for predicting these stocks. The RealTime Select composite season-wide MAD was 4.3%, larger than the historical average of 2.1%. Passage percentiles for PIT-tagged runs-at-large of wild Snake River yearling and subyearling chinook salmon and of wild steelhead outmigrating to Lower Granite Dam were predicted very well this year, their second year of inclusion in the project, with season-wide MADs of 3.6%, 4.7%, and 1.8% respectively. These results, too, were mixed with respect to comparison with last year's performance. The yearling chinook stock was predicted somewhat better last year (up from 1.7% last year to 3.6% this year) but the subyearling chinook salmon and steelhead stocks were predicted better this year than last, season-wide. The steelhead stock, in particular, was predicted much better this year than last year, down to 1.8% this year from 4.8% last year. The PIT-tagged runs-at-large of wild salmon and steelhead tracked to McNary Dam in 2001 for the first time, were also well-predicted. In particular, the Snake River stocks were well-predicted, with season-wide MADs of 4.7% for subyearling chinook salmon, 3.3% for yearling chinook salmon, and 1.4% for steelhead. All three Snake River stocks were better predicted at McNary Dam than they were at Lower Granite Dam. The Upper Columbia River PIT-tagged runs-at-large of wild subyearling chinook salmon and wild steelhead were not predicted with the remarkable accuracy of the Snake River stocks, but RealTime performance for these stocks was still good, with season-wide MADs of 7.9% and 4.9%, respectively. The results of RealTime predictions of FPC passage-indexed percentiles of combined wild and hatchery-reared salmonids to Rock Island and McNary dams were comparable to last year with respect to the large variability in performance. Like last year some runs were predicted very well while others were predicted very poorly. The stocks predicted best and worst last year were not necessarily the stocks predicted best and worst this year.« less
  • Program RealTime provided tracking and forecasting of the 2000 in season outmigration via the internet for stocks of wild PIT-tagged spring/summer chinook salmon. These stocks were ESUs from nineteen release sites above Lower Granite dam, including Bear Valley Creek, Big Creek, Camas Creek (new), Cape Horn Creek, Catherine Creek, Elk Creek, Herd Creek, Imnaha River, Johnson Creek (new), Lake Creek, Loon Creek, Lostine River, Marsh Creek, Minam River, East Fork Salmon River (new), South Fork Salmon River, Secesh River, Sulfur Creek and Valley Creek. Forecasts were also provided for two stocks of hatchery-reared PIT-tagged summer-run sockeye salmon, from Redfish Lakemore » and Alturas Lake (new); for a subpopulation of the PIT-tagged wild Snake River fall subyearling chinook salmon; for all wild Snake River PIT-tagged spring/summer yearling chinook salmon (new) and steelhead trout (new)detected at Lower Granite Dam during the 2000 outmigration. The 2000 RealTime project began making forecasts for combined wild- and hatchery-reared runs-at-large of subyearling and yearling chinook, coho, and sockeye salmon, and steelhead trout migrating to Rock Island and McNary Dams on the mid-Columbia River and the mainstem Columbia River. Due to the new (in 1999-2000) Snake River basin hatchery protocol of releasing unmarked hatchery-reared fish, the RealTime forecasting project no longer makes run-timing forecasts for wild Snake River runs-at-large using FPC passage indices, as it has done for the previous three years (1997-1999). The season-wide measure of Program RealTime performance, the mean absolute difference (MAD) between in-season predictions and true (observed) passage percentiles, improved relative to previous years for nearly all stocks. The average season-wide MAD of all (nineteen) spring/summer yearling chinook salmon ESUs dropped from 5.7% in 1999 to 4.5% in 2000. The 2000 MAD for the hatchery-reared Redfish Lake sockeye salmon ESU was the lowest recorded, at 6.0%, down from 6.7% in 1999. The MAD for the PIT-tagged ESU of wild Snake River fall sub-yearling chinook salmon, after its second season of run-timing forecasting, was 4.7% in 2000 compared to 5.5% in 1999. The high accuracy of season-wide performance in 2000 was largely due to exceptional Program RealTime performance in the last half of the season. Passage predictions from fifteen of the sixteen spring/summer yearling chinook salmon ESUs available for comparison improved in 2000 compared to 1999. The last-half average MAD over all the yearling chinook salmon ESUs was 4.3% in 2000, compared to 6.5% in 1999. Program RealTime 2000 first-half forecasting performance was slightly worse than that of 1999 (MAD = 4.5%), but still comparable to previous years with a MAD equal to 5.1%. Three yearling chinook ESUs showed moderately large (> 10%) MADs. These stocks had larger-than-average recapture percentages in 2000, producing over-predictions early in the season, in a dynamic reminiscent of migration year 1998 (Burgess et al., 1999). The passage distribution of the new stock of hatchery-reared sockeye salmon from Alturas Lake was well-predicted by Program RealTime, based on only two years of historical data (whole-season MAD = 4.3%). The two new run-of-the-river PIT-tagged stocks of wild yearling chinook salmon and steelhead trout were predicted with very good accuracy (whole-season MADs were 4.8% for steelhead trout and 1.7% for yearling chinook salmon), particularly during the last half of the outmigration. First-half steelhead predictions were among the season's worst (MAD = 10.8%), with over-predictions attributable to the largest passage on record of wild PIT-tagged steelhead trout to Lower Granite Dam. The results of RealTime predictions of passage percentiles of combined wild and hatchery-reared salmonids to Rock Island and McNary were mixed. Some of these passage-indexed runs-at-large were predicted with exceptional accuracy (whole-season MADs for coho salmon outmigrating to Rock Island Dam and McNary Dam were, respectively, 0.58% and 1.24%; for yearling chinook to McNary, 0.59%) while others were not forecast well at all (first-half MADs of sockeye salmon migrating to Rock Island and McNary Dams, respectively, were 19.25% and 12.78%). The worst performances for these mid- and mainstem-Columbia River runs-at-large were probably due to large hatchery release disturbing the smoothly accumulating percentages of normal fish passage. The RealTime project used a stock-specific method of upwardly adjusting PIT-tagged smolt counts at Lower Granite Dam. For chinook and sockeye salmon, the project continued using the 1999 formulation for spill-adjustment. For the new stock of wild PIT-tagged steelhead trout, a formula derived for steelhead trout only was used.« less
  • Program RealTime provided tracking and forecasting of the 1999 inseason outmigration via the internet for stocks of wild PIT-tagged spring/summer chinook salmon. These stocks were ESUs from sixteen release sites above Lower Granite dam, including Bear Valley Creek, Big Creek, Cape Horn Creek, Catherine Creek, Elk Creek, Herd Creek, Imnaha River, Lake Creek, Loon Creek, Lostine River, Marsh Creek, Minam River, South Fork Salmon River, and Secesh River, Sulfur Creek and Valley Creek. Forecasts were also provided for a stock of hatchery-reared PIT-tagged summer-run sockeye salmon from Redfish Lake and for the runs-at-large of Snake River wild yearling chinook salmon,more » and steelhead trout. The 1999 RealTime project began making forecasts for a new stock of PIT-tagged wild fall subyearling chinook salmon, as a substitute for forecasts of the wild run-at-large, discontinued June 6. Forecasts for the run-at-large were discontinued when a large release of unmarked hatchery fish into the Snake River made identification of wild fish impossible. The 1999 Program RealTime performance was comparable to its performance in previous years with respect to the run-at-large of yearling chinook salmon (whole season MAD=3.7%), and the run of hatchery-reared Redfish Lake sockeye salmon (whole season MAD=6.7%). Season-wide performance of program RealTime predictions for wild Snake River yearling chinook salmon ESUs improved in 1999, with mean MADs from the first half of the outmigrations down from 15.1% in 1998 to 4.5% in 1999. RealTime performance was somewhat worse for the run-at-large of steelhead trout in 1999, compared to 1998, particularly during the last half of the outmigration when the MAD increased from 2.7% in 1998 to 6.1% in 1999. A pattern of over-predictions was observed in half of the yearling chinook salmon ESUs and the steelhead run-at-large during the month of May. Lower-than-average outflows were observed at Lower Granite dam during the first half of May, the only period of low flows in an year with otherwise higher-than-average-flows. The passage distribution of the stock new to the RealTime forecasting project, the PIT tagged stock of fall subyearling chinook salmon, was predicted with very good accuracy (whole season MAD=4.7%), particularly during the last half of the outmigration (MAD=3.6%). The RealTime project reverted to a pre-1998 method of adjusting PIT-tagged smolt counts at Lower Granite Dam because of its superior performance during the last half of the outmigration.« less
  • Program RealTime provided tracking and forecasting of the 1998 inseason outmigration via the internet for stocks of wild PIT-tagged spring/summer chinook. These stocks were from eight release sites above Lower Granite dam, including Bear Valley Creek, Catherine Creek, Elk Creek, Lake Creek, Imnaha River, Minam River, South Fork Salmon River, and Secesh River. Forecasts were also provided for a stock of hatchery-reared PIT-tagged summer-run sockeye from Redfish Lake and for the runs-at-large of Snake River wild yearling and subyearling chinook salmon, and steelhead. The 1998 Program RealTime performance was comparable to its performance in previous years for the whole-season evaluationsmore » for every stock tracked. Relative to 1997, performance improved for the yearling chinook run-at-large, and for predictions for last-half of the season for every other stock. Performance compared poorly with 1997 predictions for the first half of the runs of PIT-tagged yearling spring/summer chinook stocks and the run-at-large of fall subyearling chinook, and was slightly worse for the first half of the Redfish Lake sockeye run and the steelhead run-at-large. Poor first-half performance was likely due to the unusually large (and in some cases short) outmigrations in 1998. Utilization in 1998 of a different method of adjusting smolt counts at Lower Granite Dam compared to previous years produced slightly better first-half performance than pre-1998 adjustments would have, but slightly worse last-half performance, for all the PIT-tagged stocks, prompting a return to the pre-1998 adjustment formula for the 1999 outmigration. An Army Corp of Engineers (ACOE) experiment during April and May of 1998 involving the installation of two new components to existing structures at Lower Granite Dam did not appear to affect RealTime performance. A comparison of run-timing predictions based on FPC passage indices and Battelle hydroacoustic counts showed the two independent data sources produced very similar results, for the wild steelhead and yearling chinook runs-at-large. Due to the less than desirable first half performance in 1998, a refinement in the calibration process for Program RealTime will be conducted in the future.« less