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Title: Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenarios

Abstract

This report examines the economic drivers, technology constraints, and market potential for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the U.S. A PHEV is a hybrid vehicle with batteries that can be recharged by connecting to the grid and an internal combustion engine that can be activated when batteries need recharging. The report presents and examines a series of PHEV market penetration scenarios. Based on input received from technical experts and industry representative contacted for this report and data obtained through a literature review, annual market penetration rates for PHEVs are presented from 2013 through 2045 for three scenarios. Each scenario is examined and implications for PHEV development are explored.

Authors:
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
961683
Report Number(s):
PNNL-17441
VT1101000; TRN: US200919%%282
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS; ECONOMICS; INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINES; MARKET; plug-in hybrid electric vehicles; PHEV; market penetration

Citation Formats

Balducci, Patrick J. Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenarios. United States: N. p., 2008. Web. doi:10.2172/961683.
Balducci, Patrick J. Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenarios. United States. doi:10.2172/961683.
Balducci, Patrick J. Thu . "Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenarios". United States. doi:10.2172/961683. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/961683.
@article{osti_961683,
title = {Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenarios},
author = {Balducci, Patrick J.},
abstractNote = {This report examines the economic drivers, technology constraints, and market potential for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the U.S. A PHEV is a hybrid vehicle with batteries that can be recharged by connecting to the grid and an internal combustion engine that can be activated when batteries need recharging. The report presents and examines a series of PHEV market penetration scenarios. Based on input received from technical experts and industry representative contacted for this report and data obtained through a literature review, annual market penetration rates for PHEVs are presented from 2013 through 2045 for three scenarios. Each scenario is examined and implications for PHEV development are explored.},
doi = {10.2172/961683},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Apr 03 00:00:00 EDT 2008},
month = {Thu Apr 03 00:00:00 EDT 2008}
}

Technical Report:

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  • Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are under evaluation by various stake holders to better understand their capability and potential benefits. PHEVs could allow users to significantly improve fuel economy over a standard HEV and in some cases, depending on daily driving requirements and vehicle design, have the ability to eliminate fuel consumption entirely for daily vehicle trips. The cost associated with providing charge infrastructure for PHEVs, along with the additional costs for the on-board power electronics and added battery requirements associated with PHEV technology will be a key factor in the success of PHEVs. This report analyzes the infrastructure requirementsmore » for PHEVs in single family residential, multi-family residential and commercial situations. Costs associated with this infrastructure are tabulated, providing an estimate of the infrastructure costs associated with PHEV deployment.« less
  • This fact sheet highlights the Toyota Prius plug-in HEV, a plug-in hybrid electric car in the advanced technology vehicle fleet at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). In partnership with the University of Colorado, NREL uses the vehicle for grid-integration studies and for testing new hardware and charge-management algorithms. NREL's advanced technology vehicle fleet features promising technologies to increase efficiency and reduce emissions without sacrificing safety or comfort. The fleet serves as a technology showcase, helping visitors learn about innovative vehicles that are available today or are in development. Vehicles in the fleet are representative of current, advanced, prototype, andmore » emerging technologies.« less
  • The combination of high oil costs, concerns about oil security and availability, and air quality issues related to vehicle emissions are driving interest in plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). PHEVs are similar to conventional hybrid electric vehicles, but feature a larger battery and plug-in charger that allows electricity from the grid to replace a portion of the petroleum-fueled drive energy. PHEVs may derive a substantial fraction of their miles from grid-derived electricity, but without the range restrictions of pure battery electric vehicles. As of early 2007, production of PHEVs is essentially limited to demonstration vehicles and prototypes. However, the technologymore » has received considerable attention from the media, national security interests, environmental organizations, and the electric power industry. The use of PHEVs would represent a significant potential shift in the use of electricity and the operation of electric power systems. Electrification of the transportation sector could increase generation capacity and transmission and distribution (T&D) requirements, especially if vehicles are charged during periods of high demand. This study is designed to evaluate several of these PHEV-charging impacts on utility system operations within the Xcel Energy Colorado service territory.« less
  • The Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) Value Propositions Workshop held in Washington, D.C. in December 2007 served as the Task 1 Milestone for this study. Feedback from all five Workshop breakout sessions has been documented in a Workshop Summary Report, which can be found at www.sentech.org/phev. In this report, the project team compiled and presented a comprehensive list of potential value propositions that would later serve as a 'grab bag' of business model components in Task 2. After convening with the Guidance and Evaluation Committee and other PHEV stakeholders during the Workshop, several improvements to the technical approach were identifiedmore » and incorporated into the project plan to present a more realistic and accurate case study and evaluation. The assumptions and modifications that will have the greatest impact on the case study selection process in Task 2 are described in more detail in this deliverable. The objective of Task 2 is to identify the combination of value propositions that is believed to be achievable by 2030 and collectively hold promise for a sustainable PHEV market by 2030. This deliverable outlines what the project team (with input from the Committee) has defined as its primary scenario to be tested in depth for the remainder of Phase 1. Plans for the second and third highest priority/probability business scenarios are also described in this deliverable as proposed follow up case studies in Phase 2. As part of each case study description, the proposed utility system (or subsystem), PHEV market segment, and facilities/buildings are defined.« less
  • In Task 2, the project team designed the Phase 1 case study to represent the 'baseline' plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) fleet of 2030 that investigates the effects of seventeen (17) value propositions (see Table 1 for complete list). By creating a 'baseline' scenario, a consistent set of assumptions and model parameters can be established for use in more elaborate Phase 2 case studies. The project team chose southern California as the Phase 1 case study location because the economic, environmental, social, and regulatory conditions are conducive to the advantages of PHEVs. Assuming steady growth of PHEV sales over themore » next two decades, PHEVs are postulated to comprise approximately 10% of the area's private vehicles (about 1,000,000 vehicles) in 2030. New PHEV models introduced in 2030 are anticipated to contain lithium-ion batteries and be classified by a blended mileage description (e.g., 100 mpg, 150 mpg) that demonstrates a battery size equivalence of a PHEV-30. Task 3 includes the determination of data, models, and analysis procedures required to evaluate the Phase 1 case study scenario. Some existing models have been adapted to accommodate the analysis of the business model and establish relationships between costs and value to the respective consumers. Other data, such as the anticipated California generation mix and southern California drive cycles, have also been gathered for use as inputs. The collection of models that encompasses the technical, economic, and financial aspects of Phase 1 analysis has been chosen and is described in this deliverable. The role of PHEV owners, utilities (distribution systems, generators, independent system operators (ISO), aggregators, or regional transmission operators (RTO)), facility owners, financing institutions, and other third parties are also defined.« less