Quantification Of Margins And Uncertainties: A Bayesian Approach (full Paper)
Conference
·
OSTI ID:957821
- Los Alamos National Laboratory
Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) is 'a formalism for dealing with the reliability of complex technical systems, and the confidence which can be placed in estimates of that reliability.' (Eardleyet al, 2005). In this paper, we show how QMU may be interpreted in the framework of Bayesian statistical inference, using a probabilistic network. The Bayesian approach clarifies the probabilistic underpinnings of the formalism, and shows how the formalism can be used for deciSion-making.
- Research Organization:
- Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC52-06NA25396
- OSTI ID:
- 957821
- Report Number(s):
- LA-UR-08-04800; LA-UR-08-4800; TRN: US201016%%217
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: Uncertainty Analysis in Complex, Multi-Physics Applications ; July 25, 2008 ; Stanford
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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