Incorporation of probabilistic seismic phase labels into a Bayesian multiple-event seismic locator
We add probabilistic phase labels to the multiple-event joint probability function of Myers et al., 2007 that formerly included event locations, travel-time corrections, and arrival-time measurement precision. Prior information on any of the multiple-event parameters may be used. The phase-label model includes a null label that captures phases not belonging to the collection of phases under consideration. Using the Markov-Chain Monte Carlo method, samples are drawn from the multiple-event joint probability function to infer the posteriori distribution that is consistent with priors and the arrival-time data set. Using this approach phase-label error can be accessed and phase-label error is propagated to all other multiple-event parameters. We test the method using a ground-truth data set of nuclear explosions at the Nevada Test Site. We find that posteriori phase labels agree with the meticulously analyzed data set in more than 97% of instances and the results are robust even when the input phase-label information is discarded. Only when a large percentage of the arrival-time data are corrupted does prior phase label information improve resolution of multiple-event parameters. Simultaneous modeling of the entire multiple-event system results in accurate posteriori probability regions for each multiple-event parameter.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-48
- OSTI ID:
- 953302
- Report Number(s):
- LLNL-JRNL-400630; TRN: US200915%%170
- Journal Information:
- Geophysical Journal International, Vol. 177, Issue 1; ISSN 0956-540X
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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