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Title: Multi-model Estimates of Intercontinental Source-Receptor Relationships for Ozone Pollution

Abstract

Understanding the surface O{sub 3} response over a 'receptor' region to emission changes over a foreign 'source' region is key to evaluating the potential gains from an international approach to abate ozone (O{sub 3}) pollution. We apply an ensemble of 21 global and hemispheric chemical transport models to estimate the spatial average surface O{sub 3} response over East Asia (EA), Europe (EU), North America (NA) and South Asia (SA) to 20% decreases in anthropogenic emissions of the O{sub 3} precursors, NO{sub x}, NMVOC, and CO (individually and combined), from each of these regions. We find that the ensemble mean surface O{sub 3} concentrations in the base case (year 2001) simulation matches available observations throughout the year over EU but overestimates them by >10 ppb during summer and early fall over the eastern U.S. and Japan. The sum of the O{sub 3} responses to NO{sub x}, CO, and NMVOC decreases separately is approximately equal to that from a simultaneous reduction of all precursors. We define a continental-scale 'import sensitivity' as the ratio of the O{sub 3} response to the 20% reductions in foreign versus 'domestic' (i.e., over the source region itself) emissions. For example, the combined reduction of emissions from themore » 3 foreign regions produces an ensemble spatial mean decrease of 0.6 ppb over EU (0.4 ppb from NA), less than the 0.8 ppb from the reduction of EU emissions, leading to an import sensitivity ratio of 0.7. The ensemble mean surface O{sub 3} response to foreign emissions is largest in spring and late fall (0.7-0.9 ppb decrease in all regions from the combined precursor reductions in the 3 foreign regions), with import sensitivities ranging from 0.5 to 1.1 (responses to domestic emission reductions are 0.8-1.6 ppb). High O{sub 3} values are much more sensitive to domestic emissions than to foreign emissions, as indicated by lower import sensitivities of 0.2 to 0.3 during July in EA, EU, and NA when O{sub 3} levels are typically highest, and by the weaker relative response of annual incidences of daily maximum 8-hour average O{sub 3} above 60 ppb to emission reductions in a foreign region (<10-20% of that to domestic) as compared to the annual mean response (up to 50% of that to domestic). Applying the ensemble annual mean results to changes in anthropogenic emissions from 1996 to 2002, we estimate a Northern Hemispheric increase in background surface O{sub 3} of about 0.1 ppb yr{sup -1}, at the low end of the 0.1-0.5 ppb yr{sup -1} derived from observations. From an additional simulation in which global atmospheric methane was reduced, we infer that 20% reductions in anthropogenic methane emissions from a foreign source region would yield an O{sub 3} response in a receptor region that roughly equals that produced by combined 20% reductions of anthropogenic NO{sub x}, NMVOC and CO emissions from the foreign source region.« less

Authors:
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Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
950075
Report Number(s):
LLNL-JRNL-407973
Journal ID: ISSN 0148-0227; JGREA2; TRN: US200910%%59
DOE Contract Number:  
W-7405-ENG-48
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Journal of Geophysical Research
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 114; Journal Issue: D04301; Journal ID: ISSN 0148-0227
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 58 GEOSCIENCES; IMPORTS; METHANE; OZONE; POLLUTION; PRECURSOR; SENSITIVITY; SIMULATION; TRANSPORT

Citation Formats

Fiore, A M, Dentener, F J, Wild, O, Cuvelier, C, Schultz, M G, Hess, P, Textor, C, Schulz, M, Doherty, R, Horowitz, L W, MacKenzie, I A, Sanderson, M G, Shindell, D T, Stevenson, D S, Szopa, S, Van Dingenen, R, Zeng, G, Atherton, C, Bergmann, D, Bey, I, Carmichael, G, Collins, W J, Duncan, B N, Faluvegi, G, Folberth, G, Gauss, M, Gong, S, Hauglustaine, D, Holloway, T, Isaksen, I A, Jacob, D J, Jonson, J E, Kaminski, J W, Keating, T J, Lupu, A, Marmer, E, Montanaro, V, Park, R, Pitari, G, Pringle, K J, Pyle, J A, Schroeder, S, Vivanco, M G, Wind, P, Wojcik, G, Wu, S, and Zuber, A. Multi-model Estimates of Intercontinental Source-Receptor Relationships for Ozone Pollution. United States: N. p., 2008. Web.
Fiore, A M, Dentener, F J, Wild, O, Cuvelier, C, Schultz, M G, Hess, P, Textor, C, Schulz, M, Doherty, R, Horowitz, L W, MacKenzie, I A, Sanderson, M G, Shindell, D T, Stevenson, D S, Szopa, S, Van Dingenen, R, Zeng, G, Atherton, C, Bergmann, D, Bey, I, Carmichael, G, Collins, W J, Duncan, B N, Faluvegi, G, Folberth, G, Gauss, M, Gong, S, Hauglustaine, D, Holloway, T, Isaksen, I A, Jacob, D J, Jonson, J E, Kaminski, J W, Keating, T J, Lupu, A, Marmer, E, Montanaro, V, Park, R, Pitari, G, Pringle, K J, Pyle, J A, Schroeder, S, Vivanco, M G, Wind, P, Wojcik, G, Wu, S, & Zuber, A. Multi-model Estimates of Intercontinental Source-Receptor Relationships for Ozone Pollution. United States.
Fiore, A M, Dentener, F J, Wild, O, Cuvelier, C, Schultz, M G, Hess, P, Textor, C, Schulz, M, Doherty, R, Horowitz, L W, MacKenzie, I A, Sanderson, M G, Shindell, D T, Stevenson, D S, Szopa, S, Van Dingenen, R, Zeng, G, Atherton, C, Bergmann, D, Bey, I, Carmichael, G, Collins, W J, Duncan, B N, Faluvegi, G, Folberth, G, Gauss, M, Gong, S, Hauglustaine, D, Holloway, T, Isaksen, I A, Jacob, D J, Jonson, J E, Kaminski, J W, Keating, T J, Lupu, A, Marmer, E, Montanaro, V, Park, R, Pitari, G, Pringle, K J, Pyle, J A, Schroeder, S, Vivanco, M G, Wind, P, Wojcik, G, Wu, S, and Zuber, A. Thu . "Multi-model Estimates of Intercontinental Source-Receptor Relationships for Ozone Pollution". United States. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/950075.
@article{osti_950075,
title = {Multi-model Estimates of Intercontinental Source-Receptor Relationships for Ozone Pollution},
author = {Fiore, A M and Dentener, F J and Wild, O and Cuvelier, C and Schultz, M G and Hess, P and Textor, C and Schulz, M and Doherty, R and Horowitz, L W and MacKenzie, I A and Sanderson, M G and Shindell, D T and Stevenson, D S and Szopa, S and Van Dingenen, R and Zeng, G and Atherton, C and Bergmann, D and Bey, I and Carmichael, G and Collins, W J and Duncan, B N and Faluvegi, G and Folberth, G and Gauss, M and Gong, S and Hauglustaine, D and Holloway, T and Isaksen, I A and Jacob, D J and Jonson, J E and Kaminski, J W and Keating, T J and Lupu, A and Marmer, E and Montanaro, V and Park, R and Pitari, G and Pringle, K J and Pyle, J A and Schroeder, S and Vivanco, M G and Wind, P and Wojcik, G and Wu, S and Zuber, A},
abstractNote = {Understanding the surface O{sub 3} response over a 'receptor' region to emission changes over a foreign 'source' region is key to evaluating the potential gains from an international approach to abate ozone (O{sub 3}) pollution. We apply an ensemble of 21 global and hemispheric chemical transport models to estimate the spatial average surface O{sub 3} response over East Asia (EA), Europe (EU), North America (NA) and South Asia (SA) to 20% decreases in anthropogenic emissions of the O{sub 3} precursors, NO{sub x}, NMVOC, and CO (individually and combined), from each of these regions. We find that the ensemble mean surface O{sub 3} concentrations in the base case (year 2001) simulation matches available observations throughout the year over EU but overestimates them by >10 ppb during summer and early fall over the eastern U.S. and Japan. The sum of the O{sub 3} responses to NO{sub x}, CO, and NMVOC decreases separately is approximately equal to that from a simultaneous reduction of all precursors. We define a continental-scale 'import sensitivity' as the ratio of the O{sub 3} response to the 20% reductions in foreign versus 'domestic' (i.e., over the source region itself) emissions. For example, the combined reduction of emissions from the 3 foreign regions produces an ensemble spatial mean decrease of 0.6 ppb over EU (0.4 ppb from NA), less than the 0.8 ppb from the reduction of EU emissions, leading to an import sensitivity ratio of 0.7. The ensemble mean surface O{sub 3} response to foreign emissions is largest in spring and late fall (0.7-0.9 ppb decrease in all regions from the combined precursor reductions in the 3 foreign regions), with import sensitivities ranging from 0.5 to 1.1 (responses to domestic emission reductions are 0.8-1.6 ppb). High O{sub 3} values are much more sensitive to domestic emissions than to foreign emissions, as indicated by lower import sensitivities of 0.2 to 0.3 during July in EA, EU, and NA when O{sub 3} levels are typically highest, and by the weaker relative response of annual incidences of daily maximum 8-hour average O{sub 3} above 60 ppb to emission reductions in a foreign region (<10-20% of that to domestic) as compared to the annual mean response (up to 50% of that to domestic). Applying the ensemble annual mean results to changes in anthropogenic emissions from 1996 to 2002, we estimate a Northern Hemispheric increase in background surface O{sub 3} of about 0.1 ppb yr{sup -1}, at the low end of the 0.1-0.5 ppb yr{sup -1} derived from observations. From an additional simulation in which global atmospheric methane was reduced, we infer that 20% reductions in anthropogenic methane emissions from a foreign source region would yield an O{sub 3} response in a receptor region that roughly equals that produced by combined 20% reductions of anthropogenic NO{sub x}, NMVOC and CO emissions from the foreign source region.},
doi = {},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/950075}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research},
issn = {0148-0227},
number = D04301,
volume = 114,
place = {United States},
year = {2008},
month = {10}
}