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Title: Aerosol climate effects and air quality impacts from 1980 to 2030

Abstract

We investigate aerosol effects on climate for 1980, 1995 (meant to reflect present-day) and 2030 using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model coupled to an on-line aerosol source and transport model with interactive oxidant and aerosol chemistry. Aerosols simulated include sulfates, organic matter (OM), black carbon (BC), sea-salt and dust and additionally, the amount of tropospheric ozone is calculated, allowing us to estimate both changes to air quality and climate for different time periods and emission amounts. We include both the direct aerosol effect and indirect aerosol effects for liquid-phase clouds. Future changes for the 2030 A1B scenario are examined, focusing on the Arctic and Asia, since changes are pronounced in these regions. Our results for the different time periods include both emission changes and physical climate changes. We find that the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) has a large impact on photochemical processing, decreasing ozone amount and ozone forcing, especially for the future (2030-1995). Ozone forcings increase from 0 to 0.12 Wm{sup -2} and the total aerosol forcing increases from -0.10 Wm{sup -2} to -0.94 Wm{sup -2} (AIE increases from -0.13 to -0.68 Wm{sup -2}) for 1995-1980 versus 2030-1995. Over the Arctic we find that compared tomore » ozone and the direct aerosol effect, the AIE contributes the most to net radiative flux changes. The AIE, calculated for 1995-1980, is positive (1.0 Wm{sup -2}), but the magnitude decreases (-0.3Wm{sup -2}) considerably for the future scenario. Over Asia, we evaluate the role of biofuel and transportation-based emissions (for BC and OM) via a scenario (2030A) that includes a projected increase (factor of two) in biofuel and transport-based emissions for 2030 A1B over Asia. Projected changes from present-day due to the 2030A emissions versus 2030 A1B are a factor of 4 decrease in summertime precipitation in Asia. Our results are sensitive to emissions used. Uncertainty in present-day emissions suggest that future climate projections warrant particular scrutiny.« less

Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
Environmental Energy Technologies Division
OSTI Identifier:
934719
Report Number(s):
LBNL-461E
TRN: US200814%%438
DOE Contract Number:  
DE-AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 3; Related Information: Journal Publication Date: 2008
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54; AEROSOLS; AIR QUALITY; BIOFUELS; CARBON; CHEMISTRY; CLIMATE MODELS; CLIMATES; CLOUDS; DUSTS; FOCUSING; NASA; ORGANIC MATTER; OXIDIZERS; OZONE; PRECIPITATION; PROCESSING; SULFATES; TRANSPORT

Citation Formats

Menon, Surabi, Menon, Surabi, Unger, Nadine, Koch, Dorothy, Francis, Jennifer, Garrett, Tim, Sednev, Igor, Shindell, Drew, and Streets, David. Aerosol climate effects and air quality impacts from 1980 to 2030. United States: N. p., 2007. Web.
Menon, Surabi, Menon, Surabi, Unger, Nadine, Koch, Dorothy, Francis, Jennifer, Garrett, Tim, Sednev, Igor, Shindell, Drew, & Streets, David. Aerosol climate effects and air quality impacts from 1980 to 2030. United States.
Menon, Surabi, Menon, Surabi, Unger, Nadine, Koch, Dorothy, Francis, Jennifer, Garrett, Tim, Sednev, Igor, Shindell, Drew, and Streets, David. Mon . "Aerosol climate effects and air quality impacts from 1980 to 2030". United States. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/934719.
@article{osti_934719,
title = {Aerosol climate effects and air quality impacts from 1980 to 2030},
author = {Menon, Surabi and Menon, Surabi and Unger, Nadine and Koch, Dorothy and Francis, Jennifer and Garrett, Tim and Sednev, Igor and Shindell, Drew and Streets, David},
abstractNote = {We investigate aerosol effects on climate for 1980, 1995 (meant to reflect present-day) and 2030 using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model coupled to an on-line aerosol source and transport model with interactive oxidant and aerosol chemistry. Aerosols simulated include sulfates, organic matter (OM), black carbon (BC), sea-salt and dust and additionally, the amount of tropospheric ozone is calculated, allowing us to estimate both changes to air quality and climate for different time periods and emission amounts. We include both the direct aerosol effect and indirect aerosol effects for liquid-phase clouds. Future changes for the 2030 A1B scenario are examined, focusing on the Arctic and Asia, since changes are pronounced in these regions. Our results for the different time periods include both emission changes and physical climate changes. We find that the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) has a large impact on photochemical processing, decreasing ozone amount and ozone forcing, especially for the future (2030-1995). Ozone forcings increase from 0 to 0.12 Wm{sup -2} and the total aerosol forcing increases from -0.10 Wm{sup -2} to -0.94 Wm{sup -2} (AIE increases from -0.13 to -0.68 Wm{sup -2}) for 1995-1980 versus 2030-1995. Over the Arctic we find that compared to ozone and the direct aerosol effect, the AIE contributes the most to net radiative flux changes. The AIE, calculated for 1995-1980, is positive (1.0 Wm{sup -2}), but the magnitude decreases (-0.3Wm{sup -2}) considerably for the future scenario. Over Asia, we evaluate the role of biofuel and transportation-based emissions (for BC and OM) via a scenario (2030A) that includes a projected increase (factor of two) in biofuel and transport-based emissions for 2030 A1B over Asia. Projected changes from present-day due to the 2030A emissions versus 2030 A1B are a factor of 4 decrease in summertime precipitation in Asia. Our results are sensitive to emissions used. Uncertainty in present-day emissions suggest that future climate projections warrant particular scrutiny.},
doi = {},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = ,
volume = 3,
place = {United States},
year = {2007},
month = {11}
}