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Title: Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards

Abstract

Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.

Authors:
 [1]
  1. ORNL
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
931011
DOE Contract Number:  
DE-AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining; Journal Volume: 1
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
09 BIOMASS FUELS; BIOMASS; ECONOMICS; FORECASTING; LAND USE; MANAGEMENT; METRICS; PRODUCTION; WATER QUALITY; biomass supplies; sustainability; energy crops; biomass assessments; biomass resources; biofeedstocks

Citation Formats

Graham, Robin Lambert. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards. United States: N. p., 2007. Web. doi:10.1002/bbb.33.
Graham, Robin Lambert. Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards. United States. doi:10.1002/bbb.33.
Graham, Robin Lambert. Mon . "Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards". United States. doi:10.1002/bbb.33.
@article{osti_931011,
title = {Forecasting the Magnitude of Sustainable Biofeedstock Supplies: the Challenges and the Rewards},
author = {Graham, Robin Lambert},
abstractNote = {Forecasting the magnitude of sustainable biofeedstock supplies is challenging because of 1) the myriad of potential feedstock types and their management 2) the need to account for the spatial variation of both the supplies and their environmental and economic consequences, and 3) the inherent challenges of optimizing across economic and environmental considerations. Over the last two decades U.S. biomass forecasts have become increasingly complex and sensitive to environmental and economic considerations. More model development and research is needed however, to capture the landscape and regional tradeoffs of differing biofeedstock supplies especially with regards water quality concerns and wildlife/biodiversity. Forecasts need to be done in the context of the direction of change and what the probable land use and attendant environmental and economic outcomes would be if biofeedstocks were not being produced. To evaluate sustainability, process-oriented models need to be coupled or used to inform sector models and more work needs to be done on developing environmental metrics that are useful for evaluating economic and environmental tradeoffs. These challenges are exciting and worthwhile as they will enable the bioenergy industry to capture environmental and social benefits of biofeedstock production and reduce risks.},
doi = {10.1002/bbb.33},
journal = {Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining},
number = ,
volume = 1,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2007},
month = {Mon Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 2007}
}