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Title: Bayesian methods for estimating the reliability in complex hierarchical networks (interim report).

Abstract

Current work on the Integrated Stockpile Evaluation (ISE) project is evidence of Sandia's commitment to maintaining the integrity of the nuclear weapons stockpile. In this report, we undertake a key element in that process: development of an analytical framework for determining the reliability of the stockpile in a realistic environment of time-variance, inherent uncertainty, and sparse available information. This framework is probabilistic in nature and is founded on a novel combination of classical and computational Bayesian analysis, Bayesian networks, and polynomial chaos expansions. We note that, while the focus of the effort is stockpile-related, it is applicable to any reasonably-structured hierarchical system, including systems with feedback.

Authors:
; ; ;  [1];  [1];
  1. Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Sandia National Laboratories
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
922080
Report Number(s):
SAND2007-2758
TRN: US0802168
DOE Contract Number:  
AC04-94AL85000
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE; EVALUATION; FEEDBACK; NUCLEAR WEAPONS; POLYNOMIALS; RELIABILITY; STOCKPILES; Bayesian statistical decision theory-Mathematical models.; Nuclear weapon stockpile.-Reliability

Citation Formats

Marzouk, Youssef M, Zurn, Rena M, Boggs, Paul T, Diegert, Kathleen V, Red-Horse, John Robert, and Pebay, Philippe Pierre. Bayesian methods for estimating the reliability in complex hierarchical networks (interim report).. United States: N. p., 2007. Web. doi:10.2172/922080.
Marzouk, Youssef M, Zurn, Rena M, Boggs, Paul T, Diegert, Kathleen V, Red-Horse, John Robert, & Pebay, Philippe Pierre. Bayesian methods for estimating the reliability in complex hierarchical networks (interim report).. United States. doi:10.2172/922080.
Marzouk, Youssef M, Zurn, Rena M, Boggs, Paul T, Diegert, Kathleen V, Red-Horse, John Robert, and Pebay, Philippe Pierre. Tue . "Bayesian methods for estimating the reliability in complex hierarchical networks (interim report).". United States. doi:10.2172/922080. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/922080.
@article{osti_922080,
title = {Bayesian methods for estimating the reliability in complex hierarchical networks (interim report).},
author = {Marzouk, Youssef M and Zurn, Rena M and Boggs, Paul T and Diegert, Kathleen V and Red-Horse, John Robert and Pebay, Philippe Pierre},
abstractNote = {Current work on the Integrated Stockpile Evaluation (ISE) project is evidence of Sandia's commitment to maintaining the integrity of the nuclear weapons stockpile. In this report, we undertake a key element in that process: development of an analytical framework for determining the reliability of the stockpile in a realistic environment of time-variance, inherent uncertainty, and sparse available information. This framework is probabilistic in nature and is founded on a novel combination of classical and computational Bayesian analysis, Bayesian networks, and polynomial chaos expansions. We note that, while the focus of the effort is stockpile-related, it is applicable to any reasonably-structured hierarchical system, including systems with feedback.},
doi = {10.2172/922080},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue May 01 00:00:00 EDT 2007},
month = {Tue May 01 00:00:00 EDT 2007}
}

Technical Report:

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