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Title: A generic model of contagious disease and its application to human-to-human transmission of avian influenza.

Abstract

Modeling contagious diseases has taken on greater importance over the past several years as diseases such as SARS and avian influenza have raised concern about worldwide pandemics. Most models developed to consider projected outbreaks have been specific to a single disease. This paper describes a generic System Dynamics contagious disease model and its application to human-to-human transmission of a mutant version of avian influenza. The model offers the option of calculating rates of new infections over time based either on a fixed ''reproductive number'' that is traditional in contagious disease models or on contact rates for different sub-populations and likelihood of transmission per contact. The paper reports on results with various types of interventions. These results suggest the potential importance of contact tracing, limited quarantine, and targeted vaccination strategies as methods for controlling outbreaks, especially when vaccine supplies may initially be limited and the efficacy of anti-viral drugs uncertain.

Authors:
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Sandia National Laboratories
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
915587
Report Number(s):
SAND2006-1248C
TRN: US200816%%11
DOE Contract Number:
AC04-94AL85000
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: Proposed for presentation at the System Dynamics Society Annual Meeting held July 23-27, 2006 in Nijmegen, The Netherlands.
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES; DISEASES; INFLUENZA; MUTANTS; QUARANTINE; VACCINES; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; BIRDS; MAN; SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

Citation Formats

Hirsch, Gary B. A generic model of contagious disease and its application to human-to-human transmission of avian influenza.. United States: N. p., 2007. Web.
Hirsch, Gary B. A generic model of contagious disease and its application to human-to-human transmission of avian influenza.. United States.
Hirsch, Gary B. Thu . "A generic model of contagious disease and its application to human-to-human transmission of avian influenza.". United States. doi:.
@article{osti_915587,
title = {A generic model of contagious disease and its application to human-to-human transmission of avian influenza.},
author = {Hirsch, Gary B.},
abstractNote = {Modeling contagious diseases has taken on greater importance over the past several years as diseases such as SARS and avian influenza have raised concern about worldwide pandemics. Most models developed to consider projected outbreaks have been specific to a single disease. This paper describes a generic System Dynamics contagious disease model and its application to human-to-human transmission of a mutant version of avian influenza. The model offers the option of calculating rates of new infections over time based either on a fixed ''reproductive number'' that is traditional in contagious disease models or on contact rates for different sub-populations and likelihood of transmission per contact. The paper reports on results with various types of interventions. These results suggest the potential importance of contact tracing, limited quarantine, and targeted vaccination strategies as methods for controlling outbreaks, especially when vaccine supplies may initially be limited and the efficacy of anti-viral drugs uncertain.},
doi = {},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 2007},
month = {Thu Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 2007}
}

Conference:
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