skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Effect of delayed link failure on probability of loss of assured safety in temperature-dependent systems with multiple weak and strong links.

Abstract

Weak link (WL)/strong link (SL) systems constitute important parts of the overall operational design of high consequence systems, with the SL system designed to permit operation of the system only under intended conditions and the WL system designed to prevent the unintended operation of the system under accident conditions. Degradation of the system under accident conditions into a state in which the WLs have not deactivated the system and the SLs have failed in the sense that they are in a configuration that could permit operation of the system is referred to as loss of assured safety. The probability of such degradation conditional on a specific set of accident conditions is referred to as probability of loss of assured safety (PLOAS). Previous work has developed computational procedures for the calculation of PLOAS under fire conditions for a system involving multiple WLs and SLs and with the assumption that a link fails instantly when it reaches its failure temperature. Extensions of these procedures are obtained for systems in which there is a temperature-dependent delay between the time at which a link reaches its failure temperature and the time at which that link actually fails.

Authors:
 [1]; ;  [2]
  1. (ProStat, Mesa, AZ)
  2. (Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Sandia National Laboratories
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
910200
Report Number(s):
SAND2007-1907
TRN: US200723%%376
DOE Contract Number:
AC04-94AL85000
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS//MATHEMATICS, COMPUTING, AND INFORMATION SCIENCE; ACCIDENTS; PROBABILITY; SAFETY ENGINEERING; SYSTEMS ANALYSIS; FIRES; TEMPERATURE DEPENDENCE; TIME DELAY; Statistics.; Links and link-motion.; Failure analysis.

Citation Formats

Johnson, J. D., Oberkampf, William Louis, and Helton, Jon Craig. Effect of delayed link failure on probability of loss of assured safety in temperature-dependent systems with multiple weak and strong links.. United States: N. p., 2007. Web. doi:10.2172/910200.
Johnson, J. D., Oberkampf, William Louis, & Helton, Jon Craig. Effect of delayed link failure on probability of loss of assured safety in temperature-dependent systems with multiple weak and strong links.. United States. doi:10.2172/910200.
Johnson, J. D., Oberkampf, William Louis, and Helton, Jon Craig. Tue . "Effect of delayed link failure on probability of loss of assured safety in temperature-dependent systems with multiple weak and strong links.". United States. doi:10.2172/910200. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/910200.
@article{osti_910200,
title = {Effect of delayed link failure on probability of loss of assured safety in temperature-dependent systems with multiple weak and strong links.},
author = {Johnson, J. D. and Oberkampf, William Louis and Helton, Jon Craig},
abstractNote = {Weak link (WL)/strong link (SL) systems constitute important parts of the overall operational design of high consequence systems, with the SL system designed to permit operation of the system only under intended conditions and the WL system designed to prevent the unintended operation of the system under accident conditions. Degradation of the system under accident conditions into a state in which the WLs have not deactivated the system and the SLs have failed in the sense that they are in a configuration that could permit operation of the system is referred to as loss of assured safety. The probability of such degradation conditional on a specific set of accident conditions is referred to as probability of loss of assured safety (PLOAS). Previous work has developed computational procedures for the calculation of PLOAS under fire conditions for a system involving multiple WLs and SLs and with the assumption that a link fails instantly when it reaches its failure temperature. Extensions of these procedures are obtained for systems in which there is a temperature-dependent delay between the time at which a link reaches its failure temperature and the time at which that link actually fails.},
doi = {10.2172/910200},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue May 01 00:00:00 EDT 2007},
month = {Tue May 01 00:00:00 EDT 2007}
}

Technical Report:

Save / Share:
  • Four verification test problems are presented for checking the conceptual development and computational implementation of calculations to determine the probability of loss of assured safety (PLOAS) in temperature-dependent systems with multiple weak links (WLs) and strong links (SLs). The problems are designed to test results obtained with the following definitions of loss of assured safety: (1) Failure of all SLs before failure of any WL, (2) Failure of any SL before failure of any WL, (3) Failure of all SLs before failure of all WLs, and (4) Failure of any SL before failure of all WLs. The test problems aremore » based on assuming the same failure properties for all links, which results in problems that have the desirable properties of fully exercising the numerical integration procedures required in the evaluation of PLOAS and also possessing simple algebraic representations for PLOAS that can be used for verification of the analysis.« less
  • Relationships to determine the probability that a weak link (WL)/strong link (SL) safety system will fail to function as intended in a fire environment are investigated. In the systems under study, failure of the WL system before failure of the SL system is intended to render the overall system inoperational and thus prevent the possible occurrence of accidents with potentially serious consequences. Formal developments of the probability that the WL system fails to deactivate the overall system before failure of the SL system (i.e., the probability of loss of assured safety, PLOAS) are presented for several WWSL configurations: (i) onemore » WL, one SL, (ii) multiple WLs, multiple SLs with failure of any SL before any WL constituting failure of the safety system, (iii) multiple WLs, multiple SLs with failure of all SLs before any WL constituting failure of the safety system, and (iv) multiple WLs, multiple SLs and multiple sublinks in each SL with failure of any sublink constituting failure of the associated SL and failure of all SLs before failure of any WL constituting failure of the safety system. The indicated probabilities derive from time-dependent temperatures in the WL/SL system and variability (i.e., aleatory uncertainty) in the temperatures at which the individual components of this system fail and are formally defined as multidimensional integrals. Numerical procedures based on quadrature (i.e., trapezoidal rule, Simpson's rule) and also on Monte Carlo techniques (i.e., simple random sampling, importance sampling) are described and illustrated for the evaluation of these integrals. Example uncertainty and sensitivity analyses for PLOAS involving the representation of uncertainty (i.e., epistemic uncertainty) with probability theory and also with evidence theory are presented.« less
  • Weak link (WL)/strong link (SL) systems are important parts of the overall operational design of high-consequence systems. In such designs, the SL system is very robust and is intended to permit operation of the entire system under, and only under, intended conditions. In contrast, the WL system is intended to fail in a predictable and irreversible manner under accident conditions and render the entire system inoperable before an accidental operation of the SL system. The likelihood that the WL system will fail to deactivate the entire system before the SL system fails (i.e., degrades into a configuration that could allowmore » an accidental operation of the entire system) is referred to as probability of loss of assured safety (PLOAS). Representations for PLOAS for situations in which both link physical properties and link failure properties are time-dependent are derived and numerically evaluated for a variety of WL/SL configurations, including PLOAS defined by (i) failure of all SLs before failure of any WL, (ii) failure of any SL before failure of any WL, (iii) failure of all SLs before failure of all WLs, and (iv) failure of any SL before failure of all WLs. The effects of aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty in the definition and numerical evaluation of PLOAS are considered.« less
  • Abstract not provided.