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Title: Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Alternative Rn-222 Flux Density Models Used in Performance Assessment

Abstract

Performance assessments for the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site on the Nevada Test Site have used three different mathematical models to estimate Rn-222 flux density. This study describes the performance, uncertainty, and sensitivity of the three models which include the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Guide 3.64 analytical method and two numerical methods. The uncertainty of each model was determined by Monte Carlo simulation using Latin hypercube sampling. The global sensitivity was investigated using Morris one-at-time screening method, sample-based correlation and regression methods, the variance-based extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, and Sobol's sensitivity indices. The models were found to produce similar estimates of the mean and median flux density, but to have different uncertainties and sensitivities. When the Rn-222 effective diffusion coefficient was estimated using five different published predictive models, the radon flux density models were found to be most sensitive to the effective diffusion coefficient model selected, the emanation coefficient, and the radionuclide inventory. Using a site-specific measured effective diffusion coefficient significantly reduced the output uncertainty. When a site-specific effective-diffusion coefficient was used, the models were most sensitive to the emanation coefficient and the radionuclide inventory.

Authors:
 [1]
  1. (NNSA)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
National Security Technologies, LLC
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE - National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
OSTI Identifier:
909281
Report Number(s):
DOE/NV/25946-081
TRN: US0703849
DOE Contract Number:  
DE-AC52-06NA25946
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: Waste Management 2007 Conference February 28-March 1, 2007 Tucson, AZ
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; AMPLITUDES; DIFFUSION; FLUX DENSITY; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; NEVADA TEST SITE; PERFORMANCE; RADIOACTIVE WASTE MANAGEMENT; RADIOISOTOPES; RADON; REGULATORY GUIDES; SAMPLING; SENSITIVITY; SIMULATION; WASTE MANAGEMENT; flux, diffusion, coefficient, Monte Carlo

Citation Formats

Greg J. Shott, Vefa Yucel, Lloyd Desotell Non-Nstec Authors: G. Pyles and Jon Carilli. Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Alternative Rn-222 Flux Density Models Used in Performance Assessment. United States: N. p., 2007. Web.
Greg J. Shott, Vefa Yucel, Lloyd Desotell Non-Nstec Authors: G. Pyles and Jon Carilli. Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Alternative Rn-222 Flux Density Models Used in Performance Assessment. United States.
Greg J. Shott, Vefa Yucel, Lloyd Desotell Non-Nstec Authors: G. Pyles and Jon Carilli. Fri . "Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Alternative Rn-222 Flux Density Models Used in Performance Assessment". United States. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/909281.
@article{osti_909281,
title = {Uncertainty and Sensitivity of Alternative Rn-222 Flux Density Models Used in Performance Assessment},
author = {Greg J. Shott, Vefa Yucel, Lloyd Desotell Non-Nstec Authors: G. Pyles and Jon Carilli},
abstractNote = {Performance assessments for the Area 5 Radioactive Waste Management Site on the Nevada Test Site have used three different mathematical models to estimate Rn-222 flux density. This study describes the performance, uncertainty, and sensitivity of the three models which include the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Guide 3.64 analytical method and two numerical methods. The uncertainty of each model was determined by Monte Carlo simulation using Latin hypercube sampling. The global sensitivity was investigated using Morris one-at-time screening method, sample-based correlation and regression methods, the variance-based extended Fourier amplitude sensitivity test, and Sobol's sensitivity indices. The models were found to produce similar estimates of the mean and median flux density, but to have different uncertainties and sensitivities. When the Rn-222 effective diffusion coefficient was estimated using five different published predictive models, the radon flux density models were found to be most sensitive to the effective diffusion coefficient model selected, the emanation coefficient, and the radionuclide inventory. Using a site-specific measured effective diffusion coefficient significantly reduced the output uncertainty. When a site-specific effective-diffusion coefficient was used, the models were most sensitive to the emanation coefficient and the radionuclide inventory.},
doi = {},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Jun 01 00:00:00 EDT 2007},
month = {Fri Jun 01 00:00:00 EDT 2007}
}

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