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Title: Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Evaluation of Selected Passive Components – Technical Letter Report

Abstract

This report addresses the potential application of probabilistic fracture mechanics computer codes to support the Proactive Materials Degradation Assessment (PMDA) program as a method to predict component failure probabilities. The present report describes probabilistic fracture mechanics calculations that were performed for selected components using the PRO-LOCA and PRAISE computer codes. The calculations address the failure mechanisms of stress corrosion cracking, intergranular stress corrosion cracking, and fatigue for components and operating conditions that are known to make particular components susceptible to cracking. It was demonstrated that the two codes can predict essentially the same failure probabilities if both codes start with the same fracture mechanics model and the same inputs to the model. Comparisons with field experience showed that both codes predict relatively high failure probabilities for components under operating conditions that have resulted in field failures. It was found that modeling assumptions and inputs tended to give higher calculated failure probabilities than those derived from data on field failures. Sensitivity calculations were performed to show that uncertainties in the probabilistic calculations were sufficiently large to explain the differences between predicted failure probabilities and field experience.

Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
909250
Report Number(s):
PNNL-16625
401001060; TRN: US200722%%1054
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
42 ENGINEERING; 99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS//MATHEMATICS, COMPUTING, AND INFORMATION SCIENCE; PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION; FRACTURE MECHANICS; SENSITIVITY; COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION; STRESS CORROSION; P CODES; INTERGRANULAR CORROSION; CRACK PROPAGATION; FATIGUE; MACHINE PARTS; fracture mechanics; failure probability; fatigue; stress corrosion cracking; field experience

Citation Formats

Simonen, Fredric A, Doctor, Steven R, Gosselin, Stephen R, Rudland, David L, Xu, H, Wilkowski, Gery M, and Lydell, Bengt O. Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Evaluation of Selected Passive Components – Technical Letter Report. United States: N. p., 2007. Web. doi:10.2172/909250.
Simonen, Fredric A, Doctor, Steven R, Gosselin, Stephen R, Rudland, David L, Xu, H, Wilkowski, Gery M, & Lydell, Bengt O. Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Evaluation of Selected Passive Components – Technical Letter Report. United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/909250
Simonen, Fredric A, Doctor, Steven R, Gosselin, Stephen R, Rudland, David L, Xu, H, Wilkowski, Gery M, and Lydell, Bengt O. 2007. "Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Evaluation of Selected Passive Components – Technical Letter Report". United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/909250. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/909250.
@article{osti_909250,
title = {Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Evaluation of Selected Passive Components – Technical Letter Report},
author = {Simonen, Fredric A and Doctor, Steven R and Gosselin, Stephen R and Rudland, David L and Xu, H and Wilkowski, Gery M and Lydell, Bengt O},
abstractNote = {This report addresses the potential application of probabilistic fracture mechanics computer codes to support the Proactive Materials Degradation Assessment (PMDA) program as a method to predict component failure probabilities. The present report describes probabilistic fracture mechanics calculations that were performed for selected components using the PRO-LOCA and PRAISE computer codes. The calculations address the failure mechanisms of stress corrosion cracking, intergranular stress corrosion cracking, and fatigue for components and operating conditions that are known to make particular components susceptible to cracking. It was demonstrated that the two codes can predict essentially the same failure probabilities if both codes start with the same fracture mechanics model and the same inputs to the model. Comparisons with field experience showed that both codes predict relatively high failure probabilities for components under operating conditions that have resulted in field failures. It was found that modeling assumptions and inputs tended to give higher calculated failure probabilities than those derived from data on field failures. Sensitivity calculations were performed to show that uncertainties in the probabilistic calculations were sufficiently large to explain the differences between predicted failure probabilities and field experience.},
doi = {10.2172/909250},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/909250}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu May 31 00:00:00 EDT 2007},
month = {Thu May 31 00:00:00 EDT 2007}
}