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Title: The Economics of Energy Independence for Iran

Abstract

Iran has pursued an ambitious nuclear program with the declared goal of long-term energy independence. While this is a worthwhile and generally accepted national planning objective, it is clear that the nuclear program as now structured will not achieve it, and in fact may delay it by diverting capital and other resources from projects that would address pressing current energy sector problems and contribute to ultimate energy independence.

Authors:
; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
909244
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-51719
NN4004011; TRN: US0703825
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: The Nonproliferation Review, 14(1):89-112; Journal Volume: 14; Journal Issue: 1
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY; ECONOMICS; IRAN; NUCLEAR ENERGY; PLANNING; NUCLEAR WEAPONS; Iran; energy; economics; nuclear; independence

Citation Formats

Wood, Thomas W., Milazzo, Matthew D., Reichmuth, Barbara A., and Bedell, Jeffrey J.. The Economics of Energy Independence for Iran. United States: N. p., 2007. Web. doi:10.1080/10736700601178572.
Wood, Thomas W., Milazzo, Matthew D., Reichmuth, Barbara A., & Bedell, Jeffrey J.. The Economics of Energy Independence for Iran. United States. doi:10.1080/10736700601178572.
Wood, Thomas W., Milazzo, Matthew D., Reichmuth, Barbara A., and Bedell, Jeffrey J.. Thu . "The Economics of Energy Independence for Iran". United States. doi:10.1080/10736700601178572.
@article{osti_909244,
title = {The Economics of Energy Independence for Iran},
author = {Wood, Thomas W. and Milazzo, Matthew D. and Reichmuth, Barbara A. and Bedell, Jeffrey J.},
abstractNote = {Iran has pursued an ambitious nuclear program with the declared goal of long-term energy independence. While this is a worthwhile and generally accepted national planning objective, it is clear that the nuclear program as now structured will not achieve it, and in fact may delay it by diverting capital and other resources from projects that would address pressing current energy sector problems and contribute to ultimate energy independence.},
doi = {10.1080/10736700601178572},
journal = {The Nonproliferation Review, 14(1):89-112},
number = 1,
volume = 14,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 2007},
month = {Thu Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 2007}
}
  • No abstract prepared.
  • The author believes that choices about America's energy future cannot be left in the hands of technocrats. Governments and energy companies choose ''hard'' technologies not only because of their deeply ingrained belief of technical fixes, but also because policies that emphasize those technologies tend to maximize their power and control over society's wealth and decision making. Hence, the first and foremost energy policy recommendation must be increasing public awareness of the dangers of U.S. energy vulnerability, and better education about the link between our economy, energy use, and the quality of the environment.
  • Iran, aware that oil reserves are running out as domestic and foreign demands increase, is seeking an industrial base capable of producing exports that can generate revenues comparable to those of oil. Unlike other Arab nations, Iranians have developed a professional class of entrepreneurs and engineers, although widespread technical skills have not been developed. The sixth in a series of five-year plans will go into effect on March 21, 1978. Electric utilities were nationalized in 1964 in a system, modeled after the British, of a centralized generating board (Tavanir) and regional boards for distribution and sales. The role of privatemore » industrial generating plants for plant electricity and process steam has declined since then; but when recent demand outpaced the capacity of public systems, controls were relaxed. An overview of the electrical supply and demand situation focuses on the status of Tehran, which has experienced the largest load growth coupled with manpower and equipment shortages as well as environmental contraints on energy development. A nuclear power plant, the first in a planned national grid, will begin operating in the early 1980s. Development plans for the nuclear generating program are outlined. (DCK)« less
  • The present boom in Iran did not begin with the price increases of 1973. It dates back rather to 1964 when, under the leadership of the Shahanshah Aryamehr, the country emerged from a deep recession and recorded an amazing 10 percent growth rate in real terms. This rate of growth persisted throughout the remaining period of the third Five-Year Development Plan and into the Fourth Plan when real growth averaged 11.6 percent. The fifth Five-Year Plan, which began on March 31, 1973, has been revised thoroughly and expanded in scope as a result of better oil prices. The revised planmore » aims at an average growth rate of 25.9 percent per annum at constant prices. This means that per capita income will increase from its 1973 level of $556 to $1,521 by 1978. Large-scale projects are planned for heavy industry, oil and gas, petrochemicals, chemicals, electronics, automobile manufacturing, mining, and agriculture. These projects will absorb some 50 percent of the investment expenditure. A further 20 percent will be allocated for the improvement of port, transport, communication, and infrastructure facilities. The remaining 30 percent will be used in the areas of housing, health, education, and the social services. Under this plan, the projected growth rates are 51.1 percent for oil and gas, 18 percent for industries and mines, 16.4 percent for services, and 7 percent for agriculture. The government will invest large sums of money abroad and the objectives and allocations are listed. (MCW)« less