skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: A Systematic Procedure for Assigning Uncertainties to Data Evaluations

Abstract

In this report, an algorithm that automatically constructs an uncertainty band around any evaluation curve is described. Given an evaluation curve and a corresponding set of experimental data points with x and y error bars, the algorithm expands a symmetric region around the evaluation curve until 68.3% of a set of points, randomly sampled from the experimental data, fall within the region. For a given evaluation curve, the region expanded in this way represents, by definition, a one-standard-deviation interval about the evaluation that accounts for the experimental data. The algorithm is tested against several benchmarks, and is shown to be well-behaved, even when there are large gaps in the available experimental data. The performance of the algorithm is assessed quantitatively using the tools of statistical-inference theory.

Authors:
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
902296
Report Number(s):
UCRL-TR-228283
TRN: US0702922
DOE Contract Number:
W-7405-ENG-48
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS; ALGORITHMS; BENCHMARKS; EVALUATION; PERFORMANCE

Citation Formats

Younes, W. A Systematic Procedure for Assigning Uncertainties to Data Evaluations. United States: N. p., 2007. Web. doi:10.2172/902296.
Younes, W. A Systematic Procedure for Assigning Uncertainties to Data Evaluations. United States. doi:10.2172/902296.
Younes, W. Tue . "A Systematic Procedure for Assigning Uncertainties to Data Evaluations". United States. doi:10.2172/902296. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/902296.
@article{osti_902296,
title = {A Systematic Procedure for Assigning Uncertainties to Data Evaluations},
author = {Younes, W},
abstractNote = {In this report, an algorithm that automatically constructs an uncertainty band around any evaluation curve is described. Given an evaluation curve and a corresponding set of experimental data points with x and y error bars, the algorithm expands a symmetric region around the evaluation curve until 68.3% of a set of points, randomly sampled from the experimental data, fall within the region. For a given evaluation curve, the region expanded in this way represents, by definition, a one-standard-deviation interval about the evaluation that accounts for the experimental data. The algorithm is tested against several benchmarks, and is shown to be well-behaved, even when there are large gaps in the available experimental data. The performance of the algorithm is assessed quantitatively using the tools of statistical-inference theory.},
doi = {10.2172/902296},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Feb 20 00:00:00 EST 2007},
month = {Tue Feb 20 00:00:00 EST 2007}
}

Technical Report:

Save / Share:
  • Steam-electric generation plants are evaluated on a benefit-cost basis. Non-economic factors in the development and application of a procedure for quantifying environmental uncertainties of a nuclear power plant are discussed. By comparing monetary costs of a particular power plant assessed in Part 1 with non-monetary values arrived at in Part 2 and using an evaluation procedure developed in this study, a proposed power plant can be selected as a preferred alternative. This procedure enables policymakers to identify the incremental advantages and disadvantages of different power plants in view of their geographic locations. The report presents the evaluation procedure on amore » task by task basis and shows how it can be applied to a particular power plant. Because of the lack of objective data, it draws heavily on subjectively-derived inputs of individuals who are knowledgeable about the plant being investigated. An abbreviated study at another power plant demonstrated the transferability of the general evaluation procedure. Included in the appendices are techniques for developing scoring functions and a user's manual for the Fortran IV Program.« less
  • Uncertainties for the ENDL99 and ENDF/B-VII evaluations of the {sup 9}Be (n, el) cross section have been estimated for incident neutron energies up to 20 MeV. The uncertainties were obtained by extracting the spread of the experimental data about the evaluations, using a sophisticated procedure to ensure smoothness of the uncertainty as a function of energy. The technique used to obtain the uncertainties is described briefly in this report, and the resulting error bands are given for the two evaluations.
  • There are two instrumentation systems in the 2F Evaporator facilities (bldg. 242-16F) that are classified as the Critical Protection (CP). They are the Evaporator Pot Temperature instrumentations and Steam Condensate Gamma Monitor. The pot instrumentation consists of two interrelated circuits sharing the same temperature sensor and transducer. They are the high alarm and interlock circuit and the recorder circuit. The gamma monitor instrumentation consists of four interrelated circuits sharing the same scintillation detector. They are the gamma alarm and interlock circuit, failure alarm and interlock circuit, condensate cesium activity recorder circuit, and condensate americium activity recorder circuit. The resulting uncertaintiesmore » for the instrument circuits are tabulated. (GHH)« less
  • The Evaporator Pot Temperature Instrumentations and the Steam Condensate Gamma Monitors are two instrumentation systems in the 2H Evaporator facilities that are classified as the critical protection. The temperature high alarm and interlock circuit and the temperature recorder circuit of the pot temperature instrumentation loop are described. From the gamma monitor loop, the high gamma alarm and interlock circuit, failure alarm and interlock circuit, cesium activity recorder circuit, and americium activity recorder circuit are described. (GHH)