skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases in the Second Generation Model

Abstract

The Second Generation Model (SGM) was developed for the purpose of analyzing policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This paper documents how greenhouse gas emissions are calculated in the SGM, an application to several Energy Modeling Forum scenarios that stabilize radiative forcing by using policies that either exclusively limit CO2 emissions or include both CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gasses, and an extension including advanced fossil generating technologies with CO2 capture and storage in the USA region of the SGM.

Authors:
;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
901755
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-42577
400408000; TRN: US200715%%131
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: The Energy Journal, 27(special issue #3):305-322; Journal Volume: 27; Journal Issue: 3
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; GREENHOUSE GASES; SIMULATION; STORAGE

Citation Formats

Fawcett, Allen A., and Sands, Ronald D. Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases in the Second Generation Model. United States: N. p., 2006. Web. doi:10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI3-15.
Fawcett, Allen A., & Sands, Ronald D. Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases in the Second Generation Model. United States. doi:10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI3-15.
Fawcett, Allen A., and Sands, Ronald D. Fri . "Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases in the Second Generation Model". United States. doi:10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI3-15.
@article{osti_901755,
title = {Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases in the Second Generation Model},
author = {Fawcett, Allen A. and Sands, Ronald D.},
abstractNote = {The Second Generation Model (SGM) was developed for the purpose of analyzing policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This paper documents how greenhouse gas emissions are calculated in the SGM, an application to several Energy Modeling Forum scenarios that stabilize radiative forcing by using policies that either exclusively limit CO2 emissions or include both CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gasses, and an extension including advanced fossil generating technologies with CO2 capture and storage in the USA region of the SGM.},
doi = {10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI3-15},
journal = {The Energy Journal, 27(special issue #3):305-322},
number = 3,
volume = 27,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Dec 29 00:00:00 EST 2006},
month = {Fri Dec 29 00:00:00 EST 2006}
}
  • The Canadian Climate Centre second-generation atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed-layer ocean incorporating thermodynamic sea ice is used to simulate the equilibrium climate response to a doubling of CO[sub 2]. The results of the simulation indicate a global annual warming of 3.5 C with enhanced warming found over land and at higher latitudes. Precipitation and evaporation rates increase by about 4 percent, and cloud cover decreases by 2.2 percent. Soil moisture decreases over continental Northern Hemisphere land areas in summer. The frozen component of soil moisture decreases and the liquid component increases in association with the increase ofmore » temperature at higher latitudes. The simulated accumulation rate of permanent snow cover decreases markedly over Greenland and increases slightly over Antarctica. Seasonal snow and sea ice boundaries retreat, but local decreases in planetary albedo are counteracted by tropical increases, so there is little change in the global average. 39 refs.« less
  • Forcing agents other than carbon dioxide, such as methane, nitrous oxide, halocarbons, and perhaps aerosol particles, may play a major role in mitigating climate change. Of these agents, methane is the most important greenhouse gas and has substantial mitigation potential. The role of black and organic carbon aerosols has attracted increasing interest and we explicitly include these carbonaceous aerosols in our calculations. This paper analyzes the potential role of different forcing agents in reducing future climate forcing in a multi-gas, integrated assessment model in which mitigation options compete and interact. Our framework includes all of the important atmospheric forcing agents:more » carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, halocarbons, sulfur dioxide, and carbonaceous aerosols along with an array of potential mitigation options. Through an integrated analysis of all available options we present a realistic portrait of the potential role of these forcing agents in limiting future climate change.« less
  • Previous studies have found that atmospheric brown clouds partially offset the warming effects of greenhouse gases. This finding suggests a tradeoff between the impacts of reducing emissions of aerosols and greenhouse gases. Results from a statistical model of historical rice harvests in India, coupled with regional climate scenarios from a parallel climate model, indicate that joint reductions in brown clouds and greenhouse gases would in fact have complementary, positive impacts on harvests. The results also imply that adverse climate change due to brown clouds and greenhouse gases contributed to the slowdown in harvest growth that occurred during the past twomore » decades.« less
  • This paper describes El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) interannual variability simulated in the second Handley Centre coupled model under control and greenhouse warming scenarios. The model produces a very reasonable simulation of ENSO in the control experiment--reproducing the amplitude, spectral characteristics, and phase locking to the annual cycle that are observed in nature. The mechanism for the model ENSO is shown to be a mixed SST-ocean dynamics mode that can be interpreted in terms of the ocean recharge paradigm of Jin. In experiments with increased levels of greenhouse gases, no statistically significant changes in ENSO are seen until these levels approachmore » four times preindustrial values. In these experiments, the model ENSO has an approximately 20% larger amplitude, a frequency that is approximately double that of the current ENSO (implying more frequent El Ninos and La Ninas), and phase locks to the annual cycle at a different time of year. It is shown that the increase in the vertical gradient of temperature in the thermocline region, associated with the model's response to increased greenhouse gases, is responsible for the increase in the amplitude of ENSO, while the increase in meridional temperature gradients on either side of the equator, again associated with the models response to increasing greenhouse gases, is responsible for the increased frequency of ENSO events.« less
  • The attribution of the widely observed shifted precipitation extremes to different forcing agents represents a critical issue for understanding of changes in the hydrological cycle. To compare aerosol and greenhouse-gas effects on the historical trends of precipitation intensity, we performed AMIP-style NCAR/DOE CAM5 model simulations from 1950-2005 with and without anthropogenic aerosol forcings. Precipitation rates at every time step in CAM5 are used to construct precipitation probability distribution functions. By contrasting the two sets of experiments, we found that the global warming induced by the accumulating greenhouse gases is responsible for the changes in precipitation intensity at the global scale.more » However, regionally over the Eastern China, the drastic increase in anthropogenic aerosols primarily accounts for the observed light precipitation suppression since the 1950s. Compared with aerosol radiative effects, aerosol microphysical effect has a predominant role in determining the historical trends of precipitation intensity in Eastern China.« less