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Title: The Global Atmospheric Environment for the Next Generation

Abstract

Air quality, ecosystem exposure to nitrogen deposition, and climate change are intimately coupled problems: we assess changes in the global atmospheric environment between 2000 and 2030 using twenty-five state-of-the-art global atmospheric chemistry models and three different emissions scenarios. The first (CLE) scenario reflects implementation of current air quality legislation around the world, whilst the second (MFR) represents a more optimistic case in which all currently feasible technologies are applied to achieve maximum emission reductions. We contrast these scenarios with the more pessimistic IPCC SRES A2 scenario. Ensemble simulations for the year 2000 are consistent among models, and show a reasonable agreement with surface ozone, wet deposition and NO{sub 2} satellite observations. Large parts of the world are currently exposed to high ozone concentrations, and high depositions of nitrogen to ecosystems. By 2030, global surface ozone is calculated to increase globally by 1.5 {+-} 1.2 ppbv (CLE), and 4.3 {+-} 2.2 ppbv (A2). Only the progressive MFR scenario will reduce ozone by -2.3 {+-} 1.1 ppbv. The CLE and A2 scenarios project further increases in nitrogen critical loads, with particularly large impacts in Asia where nitrogen emissions and deposition are forecast to increase by a factor of 1.4 (CLE) to 2more » (A2). Climate change may modify surface ozone by -0.8 {+-} 0.6 ppbv, with larger decreases over sea than over land. This study shows the importance of enforcing current worldwide air quality legislation, and the major benefits of going further. Non-attainment of these air quality policy objectives, such as expressed by the SRES-A2 scenario, would further degrade the global atmospheric environment.« less

Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; more »; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; « less
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
890611
Report Number(s):
UCRL-JRNL-217619
TRN: US200620%%752
DOE Contract Number:
W-7405-ENG-48
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Environmental Science and Technology, vol. 40, no. 11, June 1, 2006, pp. 3586-3594
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; AIR QUALITY; ASIA; ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY; CLIMATES; DEPOSITION; ECOSYSTEMS; IMPLEMENTATION; LEGISLATION; NITROGEN; OZONE; SATELLITES; SEAS; WASHOUT

Citation Formats

Dentener, F, Stevenson, D, Ellingsen, K, van Joije, T, Schultz, M, Amann, M, Atherton, C, Bell, N, Bergmann, D, Bey, I, Bouwman, L, Butler, T, Cofala, J, Collins, B, Drevet, J, Doherty, R, Eickhout, B, Eskes, H, Fiore, A, Gauss, M, Hauglustaine, D, Horowitz, L, Isaksen, I A, Josse, B, Lawrence, M, Krol, M, Lamarque, J F, Montanaro, V, Muller, J F, Peuch, V H, Pitari, G, Pyle, J, Rast, S, Rodriguez, J, Sanderson, M, Savage, N H, Shindell, D, Strahan, S, Szopa, S, Sudo, K, Van Dingenen, R, Wild, O, and Zeng, G. The Global Atmospheric Environment for the Next Generation. United States: N. p., 2005. Web.
Dentener, F, Stevenson, D, Ellingsen, K, van Joije, T, Schultz, M, Amann, M, Atherton, C, Bell, N, Bergmann, D, Bey, I, Bouwman, L, Butler, T, Cofala, J, Collins, B, Drevet, J, Doherty, R, Eickhout, B, Eskes, H, Fiore, A, Gauss, M, Hauglustaine, D, Horowitz, L, Isaksen, I A, Josse, B, Lawrence, M, Krol, M, Lamarque, J F, Montanaro, V, Muller, J F, Peuch, V H, Pitari, G, Pyle, J, Rast, S, Rodriguez, J, Sanderson, M, Savage, N H, Shindell, D, Strahan, S, Szopa, S, Sudo, K, Van Dingenen, R, Wild, O, & Zeng, G. The Global Atmospheric Environment for the Next Generation. United States.
Dentener, F, Stevenson, D, Ellingsen, K, van Joije, T, Schultz, M, Amann, M, Atherton, C, Bell, N, Bergmann, D, Bey, I, Bouwman, L, Butler, T, Cofala, J, Collins, B, Drevet, J, Doherty, R, Eickhout, B, Eskes, H, Fiore, A, Gauss, M, Hauglustaine, D, Horowitz, L, Isaksen, I A, Josse, B, Lawrence, M, Krol, M, Lamarque, J F, Montanaro, V, Muller, J F, Peuch, V H, Pitari, G, Pyle, J, Rast, S, Rodriguez, J, Sanderson, M, Savage, N H, Shindell, D, Strahan, S, Szopa, S, Sudo, K, Van Dingenen, R, Wild, O, and Zeng, G. Wed . "The Global Atmospheric Environment for the Next Generation". United States. doi:. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/890611.
@article{osti_890611,
title = {The Global Atmospheric Environment for the Next Generation},
author = {Dentener, F and Stevenson, D and Ellingsen, K and van Joije, T and Schultz, M and Amann, M and Atherton, C and Bell, N and Bergmann, D and Bey, I and Bouwman, L and Butler, T and Cofala, J and Collins, B and Drevet, J and Doherty, R and Eickhout, B and Eskes, H and Fiore, A and Gauss, M and Hauglustaine, D and Horowitz, L and Isaksen, I A and Josse, B and Lawrence, M and Krol, M and Lamarque, J F and Montanaro, V and Muller, J F and Peuch, V H and Pitari, G and Pyle, J and Rast, S and Rodriguez, J and Sanderson, M and Savage, N H and Shindell, D and Strahan, S and Szopa, S and Sudo, K and Van Dingenen, R and Wild, O and Zeng, G},
abstractNote = {Air quality, ecosystem exposure to nitrogen deposition, and climate change are intimately coupled problems: we assess changes in the global atmospheric environment between 2000 and 2030 using twenty-five state-of-the-art global atmospheric chemistry models and three different emissions scenarios. The first (CLE) scenario reflects implementation of current air quality legislation around the world, whilst the second (MFR) represents a more optimistic case in which all currently feasible technologies are applied to achieve maximum emission reductions. We contrast these scenarios with the more pessimistic IPCC SRES A2 scenario. Ensemble simulations for the year 2000 are consistent among models, and show a reasonable agreement with surface ozone, wet deposition and NO{sub 2} satellite observations. Large parts of the world are currently exposed to high ozone concentrations, and high depositions of nitrogen to ecosystems. By 2030, global surface ozone is calculated to increase globally by 1.5 {+-} 1.2 ppbv (CLE), and 4.3 {+-} 2.2 ppbv (A2). Only the progressive MFR scenario will reduce ozone by -2.3 {+-} 1.1 ppbv. The CLE and A2 scenarios project further increases in nitrogen critical loads, with particularly large impacts in Asia where nitrogen emissions and deposition are forecast to increase by a factor of 1.4 (CLE) to 2 (A2). Climate change may modify surface ozone by -0.8 {+-} 0.6 ppbv, with larger decreases over sea than over land. This study shows the importance of enforcing current worldwide air quality legislation, and the major benefits of going further. Non-attainment of these air quality policy objectives, such as expressed by the SRES-A2 scenario, would further degrade the global atmospheric environment.},
doi = {},
journal = {Environmental Science and Technology, vol. 40, no. 11, June 1, 2006, pp. 3586-3594},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Dec 07 00:00:00 EST 2005},
month = {Wed Dec 07 00:00:00 EST 2005}
}
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