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Title: FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS

Abstract

This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climatesmore » resulting in a different future climate analog.« less

Authors:
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Yucca Mountain Project, Las Vegas, Nevada
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
883405
Report Number(s):
ANL-NBS-GS-000008 REV 00
MOL.20000629.0907 DC#22945; TRN: US0603444
DOE Contract Number:  
NA
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE WASTES, AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTES FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES; CLIMATES; FORECASTING; HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTES; NEVADA; PERFORMANCE; RADIOACTIVE WASTE DISPOSAL; RECOMMENDATIONS; YUCCA MOUNTAIN

Citation Formats

R.M. Forester. FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS. United States: N. p., 2000. Web. doi:10.2172/883405.
R.M. Forester. FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS. United States. doi:10.2172/883405.
R.M. Forester. Tue . "FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS". United States. doi:10.2172/883405. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/883405.
@article{osti_883405,
title = {FUTURE CLIMATE ANALYSIS},
author = {R.M. Forester},
abstractNote = {This Analysis/Model Report (AMR) documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada (Figure l), the site of a potential repository for high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this AMR provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the infiltration model (USGS 2000) and for the total system performance assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) at YM. Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one method, among many, of establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog.},
doi = {10.2172/883405},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Mar 14 00:00:00 EST 2000},
month = {Tue Mar 14 00:00:00 EST 2000}
}

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