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Title: Physically-Based Global Downscaling: Climate Change Projections for a Full Century

Abstract

A global atmosphere/land model with an embedded subgrid orography scheme is used to simulate the period 1977-2100 using ocean surface conditions and radiative constituent concentrations for a climate change scenario. Climate variables simulated for multiple elevation classes are mapping according to the high-resolution of topography in ten regions with complex terrain. Analysis of changes in the simulated climate lead to the following conclusions. Changes in precipitation vary widely, with precipitation increasing more with increasing altitude in some region, decreasing more with altitude in others, and changing little in still others. In some regions the sign of the precipitation change depends on surface elevation. Changes in surface air temperature are rather uniform, with at most a two-fold difference between the largest and smallest changes within a region. In most cases the warming increases with altitude. Changes in snow water are highly dependent on altitude. Absolute changes usually increase with altitude, while relative changes decrease. In places where snow accumulates, an artificial upper bound on snow water limits the sensitivity of snow water to climate change considerably. The simulated impact of climate change on regional mean snow water varies widely, with little impact in regions in which the upper bound on snowmore » water is the dominant snow water sink, moderate impact in regions with a mixture of seasonal and permanent snow, and profound impacts on regions with little permanent snow.« less

Authors:
;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
882372
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-44150
Journal ID: ISSN 0894-8755; JLCLEL; KP1703020; TRN: US200614%%12
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Journal of Climate, 19(9):1589-1604; Journal Volume: 19; Journal Issue: 9
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; CLIMATIC CHANGE; FORECASTING; CLIMATE MODELS; COMPLEX TERRAIN; ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATIONS; SENSITIVITY; SURFACE AIR; TOPOGRAPHY; OCEANOGRAPHY

Citation Formats

Ghan, Steven J., and Shippert, Timothy R.. Physically-Based Global Downscaling: Climate Change Projections for a Full Century. United States: N. p., 2006. Web. doi:10.1175/JCLI3701.1.
Ghan, Steven J., & Shippert, Timothy R.. Physically-Based Global Downscaling: Climate Change Projections for a Full Century. United States. doi:10.1175/JCLI3701.1.
Ghan, Steven J., and Shippert, Timothy R.. Mon . "Physically-Based Global Downscaling: Climate Change Projections for a Full Century". United States. doi:10.1175/JCLI3701.1.
@article{osti_882372,
title = {Physically-Based Global Downscaling: Climate Change Projections for a Full Century},
author = {Ghan, Steven J. and Shippert, Timothy R.},
abstractNote = {A global atmosphere/land model with an embedded subgrid orography scheme is used to simulate the period 1977-2100 using ocean surface conditions and radiative constituent concentrations for a climate change scenario. Climate variables simulated for multiple elevation classes are mapping according to the high-resolution of topography in ten regions with complex terrain. Analysis of changes in the simulated climate lead to the following conclusions. Changes in precipitation vary widely, with precipitation increasing more with increasing altitude in some region, decreasing more with altitude in others, and changing little in still others. In some regions the sign of the precipitation change depends on surface elevation. Changes in surface air temperature are rather uniform, with at most a two-fold difference between the largest and smallest changes within a region. In most cases the warming increases with altitude. Changes in snow water are highly dependent on altitude. Absolute changes usually increase with altitude, while relative changes decrease. In places where snow accumulates, an artificial upper bound on snow water limits the sensitivity of snow water to climate change considerably. The simulated impact of climate change on regional mean snow water varies widely, with little impact in regions in which the upper bound on snow water is the dominant snow water sink, moderate impact in regions with a mixture of seasonal and permanent snow, and profound impacts on regions with little permanent snow.},
doi = {10.1175/JCLI3701.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate, 19(9):1589-1604},
number = 9,
volume = 19,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon May 01 00:00:00 EDT 2006},
month = {Mon May 01 00:00:00 EDT 2006}
}