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Title: Future Sulfur Dioxide Emissions

Abstract

The importance of sulfur dioxide emissions for climate change is now established, although substantial uncertainties remain. This paper presents projections for future sulfur dioxide emissions using the MiniCAM integrated assessment model. A new income-based parameterization for future sulfur dioxide emissions controls is developed based on purchasing power parity (PPP) income estimates and historical trends related to the implementation of sulfur emissions limitations. This parameterization is then used to produce sulfur dioxide emissions trajectories for the set of scenarios developed for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). We use the SRES methodology to produce harmonized SRES scenarios using the latest version of the MiniCAM model. The implications, and requirements, for IA modeling of sulfur dioxide emissions are discussed. We find that sulfur emissions eventually decline over the next century under a wide set of assumptions. These emission reductions result from a combination of emission controls, the adoption of advanced electric technologies, and a shift away from the direct end use of coal with increasing income levels. Only under a scenario where incomes in developing regions increase slowly do global emission levels remain at close to present levels over the next century. Under a climate policy that limits emissions of carbonmore » dioxide, sulfur dioxide emissions fall in a relatively narrow range. In all cases, the relative climatic effect of sulfur dioxide emissions decreases dramatically to a point where sulfur dioxide is only a minor component of climate forcing by the end of the century. Ecological effects of sulfur dioxide, however, could be significant in some developing regions for many decades to come.« less

Authors:
; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
859951
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-37915
Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009; CLCHDX; 400408000; TRN: US200523%%130
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-76RL01830
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Climatic Change, 73(3):267-318
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 73; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT; CARBON DIOXIDE; CLIMATES; COAL; IMPLEMENTATION; INCOME; PARITY; SIMULATION; SULFUR; SULFUR DIOXIDE; TRAJECTORIES; sulfur dioxide, emissions, climate change

Citation Formats

Smith, Steven J, Pitcher, Hugh M, and Wigley, Tom M. Future Sulfur Dioxide Emissions. United States: N. p., 2005. Web. doi:10.1007/s10584-005-6887-y.
Smith, Steven J, Pitcher, Hugh M, & Wigley, Tom M. Future Sulfur Dioxide Emissions. United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-6887-y
Smith, Steven J, Pitcher, Hugh M, and Wigley, Tom M. 2005. "Future Sulfur Dioxide Emissions". United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-6887-y.
@article{osti_859951,
title = {Future Sulfur Dioxide Emissions},
author = {Smith, Steven J and Pitcher, Hugh M and Wigley, Tom M},
abstractNote = {The importance of sulfur dioxide emissions for climate change is now established, although substantial uncertainties remain. This paper presents projections for future sulfur dioxide emissions using the MiniCAM integrated assessment model. A new income-based parameterization for future sulfur dioxide emissions controls is developed based on purchasing power parity (PPP) income estimates and historical trends related to the implementation of sulfur emissions limitations. This parameterization is then used to produce sulfur dioxide emissions trajectories for the set of scenarios developed for the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). We use the SRES methodology to produce harmonized SRES scenarios using the latest version of the MiniCAM model. The implications, and requirements, for IA modeling of sulfur dioxide emissions are discussed. We find that sulfur emissions eventually decline over the next century under a wide set of assumptions. These emission reductions result from a combination of emission controls, the adoption of advanced electric technologies, and a shift away from the direct end use of coal with increasing income levels. Only under a scenario where incomes in developing regions increase slowly do global emission levels remain at close to present levels over the next century. Under a climate policy that limits emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide emissions fall in a relatively narrow range. In all cases, the relative climatic effect of sulfur dioxide emissions decreases dramatically to a point where sulfur dioxide is only a minor component of climate forcing by the end of the century. Ecological effects of sulfur dioxide, however, could be significant in some developing regions for many decades to come.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-005-6887-y},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/859951}, journal = {Climatic Change, 73(3):267-318},
issn = {0165-0009},
number = 3,
volume = 73,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 2005},
month = {Thu Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 2005}
}