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Title: Future Climate Analysis

Abstract

This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lowermore » bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Other alternative approaches could include simulation of climate over the 10,000-year period; however, this modeling extrapolation is well beyond the bounds of current scientific practice and would not provide results with better confidence. A corroborative alternative approach may be found in ''Future Climate Analysis-10,000 Years to 1,000,000 Years After Present'' (Sharpe 2003 [DIRS 161591]). The current revision of this report is prepared in accordance with ''Technical Work Plan for: Unsaturated Zone Flow Analysis and Model Report Integration'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169654]).« less

Authors:
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Yucca Mountain Project, Las Vegas, Nevada (US)
Sponsoring Org.:
US Department of Energy (US)
OSTI Identifier:
839525
Report Number(s):
ANL-NBS-GS-000008, REV 01
DOC.20040908.0005, DC41555; TRN: US0502965
DOE Contract Number:
AC28-01RW12101
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Resource Relation:
Other Information: PBD: 3 Sep 2004
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE WASTES, AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTES FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES; 11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS; CLIMATES; EXTRAPOLATION; FORECASTING; HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTES; NUCLEAR FUELS; PERFORMANCE; RADIOACTIVE WASTE DISPOSAL; SIMULATION; TRANSPORT; YUCCA MOUNTAIN

Citation Formats

C. G. Cambell. Future Climate Analysis. United States: N. p., 2004. Web. doi:10.2172/839525.
C. G. Cambell. Future Climate Analysis. United States. doi:10.2172/839525.
C. G. Cambell. Fri . "Future Climate Analysis". United States. doi:10.2172/839525. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/839525.
@article{osti_839525,
title = {Future Climate Analysis},
author = {C. G. Cambell},
abstractNote = {This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Other alternative approaches could include simulation of climate over the 10,000-year period; however, this modeling extrapolation is well beyond the bounds of current scientific practice and would not provide results with better confidence. A corroborative alternative approach may be found in ''Future Climate Analysis-10,000 Years to 1,000,000 Years After Present'' (Sharpe 2003 [DIRS 161591]). The current revision of this report is prepared in accordance with ''Technical Work Plan for: Unsaturated Zone Flow Analysis and Model Report Integration'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169654]).},
doi = {10.2172/839525},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Sep 03 00:00:00 EDT 2004},
month = {Fri Sep 03 00:00:00 EDT 2004}
}

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