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Title: Seepage Calibration Model and Seepage Testing Data

Abstract

The purpose of this Model Report is to document the Seepage Calibration Model (SCM). The SCM is developed (1) to establish the conceptual basis for the Seepage Model for Performance Assessment (SMPA), and (2) to derive seepage-relevant, model-related parameters and their distributions for use in the SMPA and seepage abstraction in support of the Total System Performance Assessment for License Application (TSPA-LA). The SCM is intended to be used only within this Model Report for the estimation of seepage-relevant parameters through calibration of the model against seepage-rate data from liquid-release tests performed in several niches along the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) Main Drift and in the Cross Drift. The SCM does not predict seepage into waste emplacement drifts under thermal or ambient conditions. Seepage predictions for waste emplacement drifts under ambient conditions will be performed with the SMPA (see upcoming REV 02 of CRWMS M&O 2000 [153314]), which inherits the conceptual basis and model-related parameters from the SCM. Seepage during the thermal period is examined separately in the Thermal Hydrologic (TH) Seepage Model (see BSC 2003 [161530]). The scope of this work is (1) to evaluate seepage rates measured during liquid-release experiments performed in several niches in the Exploratory Studiesmore » Facility (ESF) and in the Cross Drift, which was excavated for enhanced characterization of the repository block (ECRB); (2) to evaluate air-permeability data measured in boreholes above the niches and the Cross Drift to obtain the permeability structure for the seepage model; (3) to use inverse modeling to calibrate the SCM and to estimate seepage-relevant, model-related parameters on the drift scale; (4) to estimate the epistemic uncertainty of the derived parameters, based on the goodness-of-fit to the observed data and the sensitivity of calculated seepage with respect to the parameters of interest; (5) to characterize the aleatory uncertainty of the parameters as a result of spatial variability; (6) to evaluate prediction uncertainty based on linear uncertainty-propagation analyses and Monte Carlo simulations; (7) to validate the SCM during model development, and validate using the post-development activities outlined in the Technical Work Plan (TWP); (8) to provide the technical basis for the resolution of unconfirmed issues previously labeled ''to be verified'' (TBV); and (9) to provide the basis for a screening argument for certain seepage-related features, events, and processes (FEPs).« less

Authors:
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Yucca Mountain Project, Las Vegas, Nevada (US)
Sponsoring Org.:
US Department of Energy (US)
OSTI Identifier:
837560
Report Number(s):
MDL-NBS-HS-000004, REV 02, Errata 002
DOC.20040219.0003, DC 38363; TRN: US0502653
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Resource Relation:
Other Information: PBD: 17 Feb 2004
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE WASTES, AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTES FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES; WATER INFLUX; RADIOACTIVE WASTE FACILITIES; BOREHOLES; CALIBRATION; LICENSE APPLICATIONS; PERFORMANCE; PERMEABILITY; COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION; FLOW MODELS; YUCCA MOUNTAIN

Citation Formats

P. Dixon. Seepage Calibration Model and Seepage Testing Data. United States: N. p., 2004. Web. doi:10.2172/837560.
P. Dixon. Seepage Calibration Model and Seepage Testing Data. United States. doi:10.2172/837560.
P. Dixon. Tue . "Seepage Calibration Model and Seepage Testing Data". United States. doi:10.2172/837560. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/837560.
@article{osti_837560,
title = {Seepage Calibration Model and Seepage Testing Data},
author = {P. Dixon},
abstractNote = {The purpose of this Model Report is to document the Seepage Calibration Model (SCM). The SCM is developed (1) to establish the conceptual basis for the Seepage Model for Performance Assessment (SMPA), and (2) to derive seepage-relevant, model-related parameters and their distributions for use in the SMPA and seepage abstraction in support of the Total System Performance Assessment for License Application (TSPA-LA). The SCM is intended to be used only within this Model Report for the estimation of seepage-relevant parameters through calibration of the model against seepage-rate data from liquid-release tests performed in several niches along the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) Main Drift and in the Cross Drift. The SCM does not predict seepage into waste emplacement drifts under thermal or ambient conditions. Seepage predictions for waste emplacement drifts under ambient conditions will be performed with the SMPA (see upcoming REV 02 of CRWMS M&O 2000 [153314]), which inherits the conceptual basis and model-related parameters from the SCM. Seepage during the thermal period is examined separately in the Thermal Hydrologic (TH) Seepage Model (see BSC 2003 [161530]). The scope of this work is (1) to evaluate seepage rates measured during liquid-release experiments performed in several niches in the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) and in the Cross Drift, which was excavated for enhanced characterization of the repository block (ECRB); (2) to evaluate air-permeability data measured in boreholes above the niches and the Cross Drift to obtain the permeability structure for the seepage model; (3) to use inverse modeling to calibrate the SCM and to estimate seepage-relevant, model-related parameters on the drift scale; (4) to estimate the epistemic uncertainty of the derived parameters, based on the goodness-of-fit to the observed data and the sensitivity of calculated seepage with respect to the parameters of interest; (5) to characterize the aleatory uncertainty of the parameters as a result of spatial variability; (6) to evaluate prediction uncertainty based on linear uncertainty-propagation analyses and Monte Carlo simulations; (7) to validate the SCM during model development, and validate using the post-development activities outlined in the Technical Work Plan (TWP); (8) to provide the technical basis for the resolution of unconfirmed issues previously labeled ''to be verified'' (TBV); and (9) to provide the basis for a screening argument for certain seepage-related features, events, and processes (FEPs).},
doi = {10.2172/837560},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Feb 17 00:00:00 EST 2004},
month = {Tue Feb 17 00:00:00 EST 2004}
}

Technical Report:

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  • The purpose of this Model Report is to document the Seepage Calibration Model (SCM). The SCM was developed (1) to establish the conceptual basis for the Seepage Model for Performance Assessment (SMPA), and (2) to derive seepage-relevant, model-related parameters and their distributions for use in the SMPA and seepage abstraction in support of the Total System Performance Assessment for License Application (TSPA-LA). This Model Report has been revised in response to a comprehensive, regulatory-focused evaluation performed by the Regulatory Integration Team [''Technical Work Plan for: Regulatory Integration Evaluation of Analysis and Model Reports Supporting the TSPA-LA'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169653])].more » The SCM is intended to be used only within this Model Report for the estimation of seepage-relevant parameters through calibration of the model against seepage-rate data from liquid-release tests performed in several niches along the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) Main Drift and in the Cross-Drift. The SCM does not predict seepage into waste emplacement drifts under thermal or ambient conditions. Seepage predictions for waste emplacement drifts under ambient conditions will be performed with the SMPA [''Seepage Model for PA Including Drift Collapse'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 167652])], which inherits the conceptual basis and model-related parameters from the SCM. Seepage during the thermal period is examined separately in the Thermal Hydrologic (TH) Seepage Model [see ''Drift-Scale Coupled Processes (DST and TH Seepage) Models'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170338])]. The scope of this work is (1) to evaluate seepage rates measured during liquid-release experiments performed in several niches in the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) and in the Cross-Drift, which was excavated for enhanced characterization of the repository block (ECRB); (2) to evaluate air-permeability data measured in boreholes above the niches and the Cross-Drift to obtain the permeability structure for the seepage model; (3) to use inverse modeling to calibrate the SCM and to estimate seepage-relevant, model-related parameters on the drift scale; (4) to estimate the epistemic uncertainty of the derived parameters, based on the goodness-of-fit to the observed data and the sensitivity of calculated seepage with respect to the parameters of interest; (5) to characterize the aleatory uncertainty of the parameters as a result of spatial variability; (6) to evaluate prediction uncertainty based on linear uncertainty-propagation analyses and Monte Carlo simulations; (7) to validate the SCM during model development, and validate the SCM using the post-development activities outlined in the Technical Work Plan (TWP); (8) to provide the technical basis for the resolution of unconfirmed issues previously labeled ''to be verified'' (TBV); and (9) to provide the technical basis for screening of certain seepage-related features, events, and processes (FEPs).« less
  • This report gives results of activities relating to the Advanced Utility Simulation Model (AUSM): sensitivity testing, comparison with a mature electric utility model, and calibration to historical emissions. The activities were aimed at demonstrating AUSM's validity over input variable ranges likely to be used for application runs. Univariate sensitivity tests demonstrated that AUSM runs and returns credible results for input ranges expected during model application and addressed issues raised by reviewers. AUSM was compared with Coal and Electric Utilities Model (CEUM) for EPA's 1987 interim base case to compare results and analyze reasons for differences between the output of themore » two models for 1990 through 2010. Experiments for 1980 through 1985 found ways to calibrate the model to historical emissions without resorting to scaling or ad hoc methods. All three activities resulted in increased confidence in AUSM for several reasons: AUSM worked well over a wide range of values; sensitivity tests and normal model inputs span such a wide range of possible values that the model will clearly work for any expectable set of inputs; outputs changed in directions and by magnitudes which were consistent with input changes and with analysts' understanding of electric utilities; and all outputs form a consistent set of results.« less
  • Many types of facility and monitoring data have been collected to support operation, closure and envirorunental restoration of the F and H-Area Seepage Basins at the Savannah River Site. Based on the various types of data, we developed contaminant transpose models to allow projection of contaminant releases and comparison of restoration alternatives. The modeling was performed in the following three stages: postulation of a conceptual model of the flow and transport system; development of a simplified analytical model based on a transfer function; development of a numerical model. A key feature of the work was use of both traditional datamore » sources and calibration targets such as heads, geological data and pump test results, and non-traditional data sources and calibration targets, such as plume arrival times and shapes, contaminant release rates, and surface water concentrations. Throughout the process, the intermediate and final results were compared to all of the various data types and the earlier modeling stages. The result was a calibration ``gauntlet`` with explicit criteria for refinement and acceptance of the final model. Failure to match at any step within the gauntlet necessitated appropriate reformulation or modification of the model and rechecking for acceptable matches.« less