Terrestrial Ecosystem Responses to Global Change: A Research Strategy
Uncertainty about the magnitude of global change effects on terrestrial ecosystems and consequent feedbacks to the atmosphere impedes sound policy planning at regional, national, and global scales. A strategy to reduce these uncertainties must include a substantial increase in funding for large-scale ecosystem experiments and a careful prioritization of research efforts. Prioritization criteria should be based on the magnitude of potential changes in environmental properties of concern to society, including productivity; biodiversity; the storage and cycling of carbon, water, and nutrients; and sensitivity of specific ecosystems to environmental change. A research strategy is proposed that builds on existing knowledge of ecosystem responses to global change by (1) expanding the spatial and temporal scale of experimental ecosystem manipulations to include processes known to occur at large scales and over long time periods; (2) quantifying poorly understood linkages among processes through the use of experiments that manipulate multiple interacting environmental factors over a broader range of relevant conditions than did past experiments; and (3) prioritizing ecosystems for major experimental manipulations on the basis of potential positive and negative impacts on ecosystem properties and processes of intrinsic and/or utilitarian value to humans and on feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere. Models and experiments are equally important for developing process-level understanding into a predictive capability. To support both the development and testing of mechanistic ecosystem models, a two-tiered design of ecosystem experiments should be used. This design should include both (1) large-scale manipulative experiments for comprehensive testing of integrated ecosystem models and (2) multifactor, multilevel experiments for parameterization of process models across the critical range of interacting environmental factors (CO{sub 2}, temperature, water, nutrients). With limited resources, these complementary experiments should be focused in high-priority ecosystems, with experimental treatments designed to address the major uncertainties in each system. Critical ecosystems, both managed and unmanaged, have been identified using the above criteria and key uncertainties in current understanding of ecosystem processes used to identify critical issues and experiments. The sizes of both the whole-ecosystem experiments and the multifactor experimental treatment units must be based on the sizes of the dominant organisms, the scale of major processes in each system, and the spatial heterogeneity of each system. For example, large-scale ecosystem manipulations in temperate forests should evaluate at a minimum CO{sub 2} and temperature and could be conducted on small, gauged catchments. The multifactor process experiments should address all major environmental driving variables, and the treatment units should be large enough to include multiple individuals of the major tree species. This approach represents a fundamental shift in the scale and integration of experimental ecosystem research: from the current small-scale, single- or two-factor experiments in simple natural or artificial ecosystems to highly coordinated, large-scale, replicated experiments in complex ecosystems, with multiple interacting factors being evaluated at two (or more) complementary levels of spatial scale and process resolution. These experiments will require an unprecedented long-term funding commitment and concentration of large-scale experimental research at a few major sites, with significant new investment in infrastructure to support large interdisciplinary teams of scientists.
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- US Department of Energy (US)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-00OR22725
- OSTI ID:
- 814449
- Report Number(s):
- ORNL/TM-1998/27; TRN: US200317%%242
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: PBD: 23 Sep 1998
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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