Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program facilities newsletter, November 2000.
Winter Weather Outlook--With the chill of colder temperatures in the air, we can rest assured that the icy grips of winter are just around the corner. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a specialized part of the National Weather Service (NWS), has issued its annual winter outlook for the 2000-2001 winter season. The CPC, located in Camp Springs, Maryland, is a government agency that focuses its predictions on Earth's climate. In comparison to the NWS forecasts of short-term weather events, the CPC goes farther into the future (from a week to seasons). The CPC conducts real-time monitoring of Earth's climate and makes predictions of climate variability over land and ocean and in the atmosphere. The CPC also evaluates the sources of major climate anomalies. The operations branch of the CPC prepares long-range forecasts by applying dynamical, empirical, and statistical techniques. The analysis branch performs applied research to identify physical factors responsible for climate fluctuations. The two branches work jointly to test new forecast methods and models, with the goal of improving model output. The CPC also evaluates the outlook for floods, droughts, hurricanes, ozone depletion, and El Nino and La Nina environments. So, what is the CPC outlook for winter 2000-2001? For the most part, winter weather will return to ''normal'' this season, because the El Nino and La Nina anomalies that shaped our past three winters have dissipated. Normal winter weather statistics are based on data for 1961-1990. The strong influence of the sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean during an El Nino or La Nina episode, which makes it easier for forecasters to predict the trend for weather events, has given way to more neutral conditions. This winter, we should be prepared for swings in temperature and precipitation. The CPC is forecasting a more normal winter in general. Thus, we should expect colder temperatures than during the past three winters, which were greatly influenced and warmed by La Nina conditions.
- Research Organization:
- Argonne National Lab., IL (US)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- US Department of Energy (US)
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-31-109-ENG-38
- OSTI ID:
- 809175
- Report Number(s):
- ANL/ER/NL-00-11; TRN: US200307%%334
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: PBD: 1 Dec 2000
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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