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Title: Statistical Comparison of Regional Atmospheric Modeling System Forecast Meteorology with Observations

Abstract

A statistical comparison of observations and forecasts using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) for operations at the Savannah River Site (SRS) is discussed. Simulated and observed values of wind direction, wind speed, and temperature, collected twice daily for a two-year period from April 1998 through March 2000, are compared in a variety of ways for 5 different locations in the southeast United States. Turbulence quantities are also compared for a one-year period beginning in February 1999 for the SRS. Results are presented in the form of scatter plots and histograms, as well as time-based line plots for the different locations within the modeling domain. Both surface and upper-level model predictions are compared with observations taken from both the National Weather Service and local SRS tower locations (surface measures only). Variability based on the time of year, the forecast hour, the location of the observations, and the height above ground for each of these variables is discussed. Statistics of accuracy used for comparison include absolute mean bias, relative bias, root-mean-square error, standard deviation, and the index of agreement. The most severe degradation in results occurs during the transition periods of early evening (approximately 19 to 20 LST) and late morningmore » (approximately 07 to 08 LST), especially for temperature.« less

Authors:
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Savannah River Site (US)
Sponsoring Org.:
US Department of Energy (US)
OSTI Identifier:
799312
Report Number(s):
WSRC-TR-2001-00563
TRN: US0205182
DOE Contract Number:
AC09-96SR18500
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Resource Relation:
Other Information: PBD: 4 Feb 2002
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; ACCURACY; METEOROLOGY; SAVANNAH RIVER PLANT; STATISTICS; TURBULENCE; WEATHER; CLIMATE MODELS; REGIONAL ANALYSIS; WIND; AMBIENT TEMPERATURE

Citation Formats

Buckley, R.L. Statistical Comparison of Regional Atmospheric Modeling System Forecast Meteorology with Observations. United States: N. p., 2002. Web. doi:10.2172/799312.
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Buckley, R.L. Statistical Comparison of Regional Atmospheric Modeling System Forecast Meteorology with Observations. United States. doi:10.2172/799312.
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Buckley, R.L. Mon . "Statistical Comparison of Regional Atmospheric Modeling System Forecast Meteorology with Observations". United States. doi:10.2172/799312. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/799312.
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@article{osti_799312,
title = {Statistical Comparison of Regional Atmospheric Modeling System Forecast Meteorology with Observations},
author = {Buckley, R.L.},
abstractNote = {A statistical comparison of observations and forecasts using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) for operations at the Savannah River Site (SRS) is discussed. Simulated and observed values of wind direction, wind speed, and temperature, collected twice daily for a two-year period from April 1998 through March 2000, are compared in a variety of ways for 5 different locations in the southeast United States. Turbulence quantities are also compared for a one-year period beginning in February 1999 for the SRS. Results are presented in the form of scatter plots and histograms, as well as time-based line plots for the different locations within the modeling domain. Both surface and upper-level model predictions are compared with observations taken from both the National Weather Service and local SRS tower locations (surface measures only). Variability based on the time of year, the forecast hour, the location of the observations, and the height above ground for each of these variables is discussed. Statistics of accuracy used for comparison include absolute mean bias, relative bias, root-mean-square error, standard deviation, and the index of agreement. The most severe degradation in results occurs during the transition periods of early evening (approximately 19 to 20 LST) and late morning (approximately 07 to 08 LST), especially for temperature.},
doi = {10.2172/799312},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Feb 04 00:00:00 EST 2002},
month = {Mon Feb 04 00:00:00 EST 2002}
}
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DOI:  10.2172/799312
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