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Title: Projections of motor vehicle growth, fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions for the next thirty years in China.

Abstract

Since the early 1990s, China's motor vehicles have entered a period of fast growth resultant from the rapid economic expansion. As the largest developing country, the fast growth of China's motor vehicles will have tremendous effects on the world's automotive and fuel market and on global CO{sub 2} emissions. In this study, we projected Chinese vehicle stocks for different vehicle types on the provincial level. First, we reviewed the historical data of China's vehicle growth in the past 10 years and the correlations between vehicle growth and economic growth in China. Second, we investigated historical vehicle growth trends in selected developed countries over the past 50 or so years. Third, we established a vehicle growth scenario based on the historical trends in several developed nations. Fourth, we estimated fuel economy, annual mileage and other vehicle usage parameters for Chinese vehicles. Finally, we projected vehicle stocks and estimated motor fuel use and CO{sub 2} emissions in each Chinese province from 2000 to 2030. Our results show that China will continue the rapid vehicle growth, increase gasoline and diesel consumption and increased CO{sub 2} emissions in the next 30 years. We estimated that by year 2030, Chinese motor vehicle fuel consumption andmore » CO{sub 2} emissions could reach the current US levels.« less

Authors:
;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Argonne National Lab., IL (US)
Sponsoring Org.:
US Department of Energy (US)
OSTI Identifier:
772103
Report Number(s):
ANL/ES/CP-102554
TRN: AH200118%%541
DOE Contract Number:  
W-31-109-ENG-38
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: 2001 Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC (US), 01/08/2001--01/12/2001; Other Information: PBD: 12 Dec 2000
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
02 PETROLEUM; CHINA; DEVELOPED COUNTRIES; ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT; ECONOMICS; FUEL CONSUMPTION; GASOLINE; MARKET; MOTORS

Citation Formats

He, D, and Wang, M. Projections of motor vehicle growth, fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions for the next thirty years in China.. United States: N. p., 2000. Web.
He, D, & Wang, M. Projections of motor vehicle growth, fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions for the next thirty years in China.. United States.
He, D, and Wang, M. Tue . "Projections of motor vehicle growth, fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions for the next thirty years in China.". United States. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/772103.
@article{osti_772103,
title = {Projections of motor vehicle growth, fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions for the next thirty years in China.},
author = {He, D and Wang, M},
abstractNote = {Since the early 1990s, China's motor vehicles have entered a period of fast growth resultant from the rapid economic expansion. As the largest developing country, the fast growth of China's motor vehicles will have tremendous effects on the world's automotive and fuel market and on global CO{sub 2} emissions. In this study, we projected Chinese vehicle stocks for different vehicle types on the provincial level. First, we reviewed the historical data of China's vehicle growth in the past 10 years and the correlations between vehicle growth and economic growth in China. Second, we investigated historical vehicle growth trends in selected developed countries over the past 50 or so years. Third, we established a vehicle growth scenario based on the historical trends in several developed nations. Fourth, we estimated fuel economy, annual mileage and other vehicle usage parameters for Chinese vehicles. Finally, we projected vehicle stocks and estimated motor fuel use and CO{sub 2} emissions in each Chinese province from 2000 to 2030. Our results show that China will continue the rapid vehicle growth, increase gasoline and diesel consumption and increased CO{sub 2} emissions in the next 30 years. We estimated that by year 2030, Chinese motor vehicle fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions could reach the current US levels.},
doi = {},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/772103}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2000},
month = {12}
}

Conference:
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