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Title: Characterization of stochastic uncertainty in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

Abstract

The 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the possible disruptions that could occur at the WIPP over the 10,000 yr regulatory period specified by the US Environmental Protection Agency (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194) and subjective uncertainty arising from an inability to uniquely characterize many of the inputs required in the 1996 WIPP PA. The characterization of stochastic uncertainty is discussed including drilling intrusion time, drilling location penetration of excavated/nonexcavated areas of the repository, penetration of pressurized brine beneath the repository, borehole plugging patterns, activity level of waste, and occurrence of potash mining. Additional topics discussed include sampling procedures, generation of individual 10,000 yr futures for the WIPP, construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs), mechanistic calculations carried out to support CCDF construction the Kaplan/Garrick ordered triple representation for risk and determination of scenarios and scenario probabilities.

Authors:
; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (US); Sandia National Labs., Livermore, CA (US)
Sponsoring Org.:
US Department of Energy (US)
OSTI Identifier:
755472
Report Number(s):
SAND99-1882J
TRN: US0003605
DOE Contract Number:  
AC04-94AL85000
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Reliability Engineering and System Safety (Special Journal Issue)
Additional Journal Information:
Other Information: Submitted to Reliability Engineering and System Safety (Special Journal Issue); PBD: 19 May 2000
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE WASTES, AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTES FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES; 11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS; WIPP; PERFORMANCE; PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION; RADIATION ACCIDENTS; DATA COVARIANCES; HUMAN INTRUSION; WELL DRILLING; WATER INFLUX; RISK ASSESSMENT; ALEATORY UNCERTAINTY; COMPLEMENTARY CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION; COMPLIANCE CERTIFICATION APPLICATION; EPISTEMIC UNCERTAINTY; LATIN HYPERCUBE SAMPLING; PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT; RADIOACTIVE WASTE; RANDOM SAMPLING; SCENARIO; STOCHASTIC UNCERTAINTY; SUBJECTIVE UNCERTAINTY; TRANSURANIC WASTE; WASTE ISOLATION PILOT PLANT; 40 CFR 191; 40 CFR 194

Citation Formats

HELTON,JON CRAIG, DAVIS,FREDDIE J., and JOHNSON,J.D. Characterization of stochastic uncertainty in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. United States: N. p., 2000. Web.
HELTON,JON CRAIG, DAVIS,FREDDIE J., & JOHNSON,J.D. Characterization of stochastic uncertainty in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. United States.
HELTON,JON CRAIG, DAVIS,FREDDIE J., and JOHNSON,J.D. Fri . "Characterization of stochastic uncertainty in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant". United States. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/755472.
@article{osti_755472,
title = {Characterization of stochastic uncertainty in the 1996 performance assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant},
author = {HELTON,JON CRAIG and DAVIS,FREDDIE J. and JOHNSON,J.D.},
abstractNote = {The 1996 performance assessment (PA) for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the possible disruptions that could occur at the WIPP over the 10,000 yr regulatory period specified by the US Environmental Protection Agency (40 CFR 191, 40 CFR 194) and subjective uncertainty arising from an inability to uniquely characterize many of the inputs required in the 1996 WIPP PA. The characterization of stochastic uncertainty is discussed including drilling intrusion time, drilling location penetration of excavated/nonexcavated areas of the repository, penetration of pressurized brine beneath the repository, borehole plugging patterns, activity level of waste, and occurrence of potash mining. Additional topics discussed include sampling procedures, generation of individual 10,000 yr futures for the WIPP, construction of complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs), mechanistic calculations carried out to support CCDF construction the Kaplan/Garrick ordered triple representation for risk and determination of scenarios and scenario probabilities.},
doi = {},
journal = {Reliability Engineering and System Safety (Special Journal Issue)},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2000},
month = {5}
}