Short-range load forecasting for distribution system planning; An improved method for extrapolating feeder load growth

Journal Article · Sat Aug 01 00:00:00 EDT 1992 · IEEE Transactions on Power Systems (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers); (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1109/59.207349· OSTI ID:7178502

Willis, H L; Tram, H N; Rackliffe, G B ^[1]

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1. ABB Advanced Systems Technology, Pittsburgh, PA (US)

In this paper, a new method of extrapolating feeder peak load histories to produce estimates of future loads is described. The method, an improvement on past multiple regression curve fit methods, uses an assumed geometry based on substation locations and a classification by recent growth rates to group feeders into six classes, each extrapolated in a slightly different manner. The new method is simple enough to be applied in situations where computing resources are limited. A series of tests shows that the new method outperforms other distribution load extrapolation methods, and that for short range (less than five years ahead) forecasts, it matches the accuracy of simulation forecasting methods, which require considerably more data and computer resources.

• OSTI ID: 7178502
• Journal Information: IEEE Transactions on Power Systems (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers); (United States), Vol. 7:3; ISSN 0885-8950
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS
GENERAL PHYSICS
POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS
LOAD ANALYSIS
ACCURACY
CALCULATION METHODS
EXTRAPOLATION
FORECASTING
TESTING
NUMERICAL SOLUTION
240200* - Power System Networks
Transmission & Distribution- (1990-)
661100 - Classical & Quantum Mechanics- (1992-)