Moscow meltdown: Can Russia survive
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)
Western intelligence analysts and policy makers should pay closer attention to the centrifugal forces in Russia for two primary reasons: nuclear weapons are located in some of the most volatile regions, and central control of the armed forces is eroding. If Russia were to fragment, thousands of weapons and tons of fissile materials would be dispersed to new states with little safeguards infrastructure and little experience in controlling borders, a situation potentially far more dangerous than the breakup of the Soviet Union. Nuclear research, production, maintenance, and dismantlement facilities, plus uranium enrichment and plutonium separation facilities, could be inherited by new, unstable states. Further devolution of political authority could loosen control over sensitive exports and increase the risk of terrorist acquisition of fissile materials. This article discusses the confusion over the legitimacy of the physical and political boundaries of the Russian Federation; then, the economic incentives for regionalism in Russia; next, the main ethnic groups in Russia and the roots of ethnic nationalism in the Russian Federation. It then discusses political disarray in the center and in the regions, and the lack of unity among order-enforcing entities; focuses in somewhat more detail on the Volga-Ural region, where there is a concentration of nuclear weapons and facilities, and which is especially volatile politically. These factors taken together call into question Russia's viability as a state. In post-communist Russia, chaos has replaced order; license has replaced terror. Order-enforcing entities are eviscerated or in conflict. Neither economic shock therapy nor Group of Seven funds can help with these problems; Russia will not be a state until new unifying institutions are created, whether they are democratic or authoritarian.
- OSTI ID:
- 7167956
- Journal Information:
- International Security; (United States), Vol. 18:4; ISSN 0162-2889
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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