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Title: Estimation of benefits from demonstrating advanced wet/dry cooling technology: a framework and partial analysis

Abstract

An analysis was performed to estimate reductions in future electric power generation costs expected to occur through a proposed 6- to 10-MWe demonstration of an ammonia (NH/sub 3/) cooling concept. Theoretical and empirical research on technological substitution and diffusion were reviewed in developing the analytical framework and computer model used in this analysis. Stochastic learning and market penetration functions were used to derive benefit distributions for two primary scenarios. The distributions provide not only single best estimates of the benefits, but measures of the uncertainty surrounding the estimates as well. The benefits were estimated by subtracting the net present value of expected future cooling costs if no demonstration were to take place from the net present value of expected future cooling costs if the demonstration did take place. If the public demonstration does not occur, two scenarios were hypothesized: ammonia cooling will never be commercialized; and ammonia cooling will be commercialized at a later date than if the demonstration had occurred. The analysis suggests that the benefits from a public investment in demonstration would probably exceed the estimated $10 million project cost.

Authors:
;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Battelle Pacific Northwest Labs., Richland, Wash. (USA)
OSTI Identifier:
7089086
Report Number(s):
BNWL-2182
DOE Contract Number:
EY-76-C-06-1830
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS; COOLING SYSTEMS; COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; THERMAL POWER PLANTS; AMMONIA; COOLING TOWERS; COST; ECONOMICS; FEASIBILITY STUDIES; HEAT EXCHANGERS; MARKET; POWER GENERATION; HYDRIDES; HYDROGEN COMPOUNDS; NITROGEN COMPOUNDS; NITROGEN HYDRIDES; POWER PLANTS; 200101* - Fossil-Fueled Power Plants- Cooling & Heat Transfer Equipment & Systems

Citation Formats

Currie, J.W., and Foley, T.J.. Estimation of benefits from demonstrating advanced wet/dry cooling technology: a framework and partial analysis. United States: N. p., 1977. Web. doi:10.2172/7089086.
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Currie, J.W., & Foley, T.J.. Estimation of benefits from demonstrating advanced wet/dry cooling technology: a framework and partial analysis. United States. doi:10.2172/7089086.
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Currie, J.W., and Foley, T.J.. Thu . "Estimation of benefits from demonstrating advanced wet/dry cooling technology: a framework and partial analysis". United States. doi:10.2172/7089086. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/7089086.
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@article{osti_7089086,
title = {Estimation of benefits from demonstrating advanced wet/dry cooling technology: a framework and partial analysis},
author = {Currie, J.W. and Foley, T.J.},
abstractNote = {An analysis was performed to estimate reductions in future electric power generation costs expected to occur through a proposed 6- to 10-MWe demonstration of an ammonia (NH/sub 3/) cooling concept. Theoretical and empirical research on technological substitution and diffusion were reviewed in developing the analytical framework and computer model used in this analysis. Stochastic learning and market penetration functions were used to derive benefit distributions for two primary scenarios. The distributions provide not only single best estimates of the benefits, but measures of the uncertainty surrounding the estimates as well. The benefits were estimated by subtracting the net present value of expected future cooling costs if no demonstration were to take place from the net present value of expected future cooling costs if the demonstration did take place. If the public demonstration does not occur, two scenarios were hypothesized: ammonia cooling will never be commercialized; and ammonia cooling will be commercialized at a later date than if the demonstration had occurred. The analysis suggests that the benefits from a public investment in demonstration would probably exceed the estimated $10 million project cost.},
doi = {10.2172/7089086},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 1977},
month = {Thu Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 1977}
}
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Technical Report:
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DOI:  10.2172/7089086
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