Global and long-range picture of energy developments. [Low and high scenarios to 2030]

Journal Article · Fri Jul 04 00:00:00 EDT 1980 · Science; (United States)

OSTI ID:7041649

Haefele, W

Most studies of energy supply and demand ignore either global interdependence or the long time spans necessary to adjust to new energy sources. The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis has therefore studied on a global scale, for seven major world regions, the balance between energy supply and demand for the next 50 years. Reported here are the results for two benchmark scenarios. In the low scenario world energy consumption increases from today's 8.2 terawatt-year per year to 22 terawatt-year per year in 2030; in the high scenario, consumption increases to 35 terawatt-year per year. The study showed that time will be the limiting constraint in adapting the energy-supply infrastructure to changing resource availability; resources will be available until the second half of the next century, but a strong shift will be required to low-grade fossil fuels such as shale oil and tar sands. Each scenario studied indicated increased environmental problems associated with increased use of fossil fuels, and potential geopolitical problems associated with the world distribution of resources. 22 references, 7 figures, 6 tables.

• Research Organization: Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
• OSTI ID: 7041649
• Journal Information: Science; (United States), Vol. 209
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
ENERGY DEMAND
FORECASTING
ENERGY SUPPLIES
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
FOSSIL FUELS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
POLITICAL ASPECTS
REVIEWS
DEMAND
DOCUMENT TYPES
ENERGY SOURCES
FUELS
INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS
292000* - Energy Planning & Policy- Supply
Demand & Forecasting