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Title: Climate modeling`s fudge factor comes under fire

Abstract

In climate modeling, nearly everybody cheats a little. Although models of how the ocean and the atmopshere interact are meant to forecast the greenhouse warming of the next century, they can`t even get today`s climate right. So the amount of heat and moisture flowing between a model`s atmosphere and ocean are adjusted until it approximates the present climate. In a study out of MIT, Nakamura, Stone, and Marotzke report that they deliverately introduced an error into a climate model, then seemingly adjusted the error away, only to find that it still hampered the model`s ability to predict future climates. The implication is that flux adjustments disguise, but may not correct a model`s underlying defects. This article discusses the broader aspects of the finding.

Authors:
Publication Date:
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
70310
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Science
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 265; Journal Issue: 5178; Other Information: PBD: 9 Sep 1994
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; CLIMATE MODELS; EVALUATION; ACCURACY

Citation Formats

Kerr, R A. Climate modeling`s fudge factor comes under fire. United States: N. p., 1994. Web. doi:10.1126/science.265.5178.1528.
Kerr, R A. Climate modeling`s fudge factor comes under fire. United States. doi:10.1126/science.265.5178.1528.
Kerr, R A. Fri . "Climate modeling`s fudge factor comes under fire". United States. doi:10.1126/science.265.5178.1528.
@article{osti_70310,
title = {Climate modeling`s fudge factor comes under fire},
author = {Kerr, R A},
abstractNote = {In climate modeling, nearly everybody cheats a little. Although models of how the ocean and the atmopshere interact are meant to forecast the greenhouse warming of the next century, they can`t even get today`s climate right. So the amount of heat and moisture flowing between a model`s atmosphere and ocean are adjusted until it approximates the present climate. In a study out of MIT, Nakamura, Stone, and Marotzke report that they deliverately introduced an error into a climate model, then seemingly adjusted the error away, only to find that it still hampered the model`s ability to predict future climates. The implication is that flux adjustments disguise, but may not correct a model`s underlying defects. This article discusses the broader aspects of the finding.},
doi = {10.1126/science.265.5178.1528},
journal = {Science},
number = 5178,
volume = 265,
place = {United States},
year = {1994},
month = {9}
}