Climate modeling`s fudge factor comes under fire
In climate modeling, nearly everybody cheats a little. Although models of how the ocean and the atmopshere interact are meant to forecast the greenhouse warming of the next century, they can`t even get today`s climate right. So the amount of heat and moisture flowing between a model`s atmosphere and ocean are adjusted until it approximates the present climate. In a study out of MIT, Nakamura, Stone, and Marotzke report that they deliverately introduced an error into a climate model, then seemingly adjusted the error away, only to find that it still hampered the model`s ability to predict future climates. The implication is that flux adjustments disguise, but may not correct a model`s underlying defects. This article discusses the broader aspects of the finding.
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- OSTI ID:
- 70310
- Journal Information:
- Science, Vol. 265, Issue 5178; Other Information: PBD: 9 Sep 1994
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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