Study and extension of the integrating model of the Mid-Range Energy-Forecasting System
This dissertation is concerned with the study and extension of the Integrating Model of the Mid Range Energy Forecasting System (MEFS). The MEFS consists of a family of models which have been utilized since 1974 by the federal government to predict the supply of and demand for a variety of energy products in the United States for up to fifteen years into the future. The Integrating Model combines energy-supply possibilities developed from the system's satellite supply models and energy-demand information developed from an econometric demand model, and solves for a system equilibrium using a sequence of linear programs. This research is concerned with two important criticisms of the Integrating Model: (1) The market structure employed is questionable. (2) The equilibrating procedure used is not well understood. The original developers of the Integrating Model argue that the system finds a competitive-market solution. However, a study of the mathematical structure of the system indicates that marginal costs are improperly specified for this type of solution. It is demonstrated that marginal costs in excess of those expected for a competitive solution are employed. A study of a two product model using mathematical and graphical analysis reveals that the equilibrating mechanism employed is a variation of the Gauss-Seidel numerical procedure. The rapid convergence commonly experienced in past applications is due to the utilization of large-scale linear programming for the numerical procedure.
- OSTI ID:
- 6745375
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: Thesis (Ph. D.)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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