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Title: Exploring the concept of climate surprises. A review of the literature on the concept of surprise and how it is related to climate change

Abstract

This report examines the concept of climate surprise and its implications for environmental policymaking. Although most integrated assessment models of climate change deal with average values of change, it is usually the extreme events or surprises that cause the most damage to human health and property. Current models do not help the policymaker decide how to deal with climate surprises. This report examines the literature of surprise in many aspects of human society: psychology, military, health care, humor, agriculture, etc. It draws together various ways to consider the concept of surprise and examines different taxonomies of surprise that have been proposed. In many ways, surprise is revealed to be a subjective concept, triggered by such factors as prior experience, belief system, and level of education. How policymakers have reacted to specific instances of climate change or climate surprise in the past is considered, particularly with regard to the choices they made between proactive and reactive measures. Finally, the report discusses techniques used in the current generation of assessment models and makes suggestions as to how climate surprises might be included in future models. The report concludes that some kinds of surprises are simply unpredictable, but there are several types thatmore » could in some way be anticipated and assessed, and their negative effects forestalled.« less

Authors:
;  [1]; ; ;  [2];  [3]
  1. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  2. Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Decision and Information Sciences Div.
  3. State Univ. of New York, Albany, NY (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Research, Washington, DC (United States)
OSTI Identifier:
666195
Report Number(s):
ANL/DIS/TM-46
ON: DE98004576; TRN: 99:000881
DOE Contract Number:  
W-31109-ENG-38
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Resource Relation:
Other Information: PBD: Jan 1998
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 29 ENERGY PLANNING AND POLICY; CLIMATIC CHANGE; ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS; CLIMATE MODELS; DECISION MAKING

Citation Formats

Glantz, M H, Moore, C M, Streets, D G, Bhatti, N, Rosa, C H, and Stewart, T R. Exploring the concept of climate surprises. A review of the literature on the concept of surprise and how it is related to climate change. United States: N. p., 1998. Web. doi:10.2172/666195.
Glantz, M H, Moore, C M, Streets, D G, Bhatti, N, Rosa, C H, & Stewart, T R. Exploring the concept of climate surprises. A review of the literature on the concept of surprise and how it is related to climate change. United States. doi:10.2172/666195.
Glantz, M H, Moore, C M, Streets, D G, Bhatti, N, Rosa, C H, and Stewart, T R. Thu . "Exploring the concept of climate surprises. A review of the literature on the concept of surprise and how it is related to climate change". United States. doi:10.2172/666195. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/666195.
@article{osti_666195,
title = {Exploring the concept of climate surprises. A review of the literature on the concept of surprise and how it is related to climate change},
author = {Glantz, M H and Moore, C M and Streets, D G and Bhatti, N and Rosa, C H and Stewart, T R},
abstractNote = {This report examines the concept of climate surprise and its implications for environmental policymaking. Although most integrated assessment models of climate change deal with average values of change, it is usually the extreme events or surprises that cause the most damage to human health and property. Current models do not help the policymaker decide how to deal with climate surprises. This report examines the literature of surprise in many aspects of human society: psychology, military, health care, humor, agriculture, etc. It draws together various ways to consider the concept of surprise and examines different taxonomies of surprise that have been proposed. In many ways, surprise is revealed to be a subjective concept, triggered by such factors as prior experience, belief system, and level of education. How policymakers have reacted to specific instances of climate change or climate surprise in the past is considered, particularly with regard to the choices they made between proactive and reactive measures. Finally, the report discusses techniques used in the current generation of assessment models and makes suggestions as to how climate surprises might be included in future models. The report concludes that some kinds of surprises are simply unpredictable, but there are several types that could in some way be anticipated and assessed, and their negative effects forestalled.},
doi = {10.2172/666195},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {1998},
month = {1}
}