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Title: Surface air temperature simulations by AMIP general circulation models: Volcanic and ENSO signals and systematic errors

Abstract

Thirty surface air temperature simulations for 1979--88 by 29 atmospheric general circulation models are analyzed and compared with the observations over land. These models were run as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). Several simulations showed serious systematic errors, up to 4--5 C, in globally averaged land air temperature. The 16 best simulations gave rather realistic reproductions of the mean climate and seasonal cycle of global land air temperature, with an average error of {minus}0.9 C for the 10-yr period. The general coldness of the model simulations is consistent with previous intercomparison studies. The regional systematic errors showed very large cold biases in areas with topography and permanent ice, which implies a common deficiency in the representation of snow-ice albedo in the diverse models. The SST and sea ice specification of climatology rather than observations at high latitudes for the first three years (1979--81) caused a noticeable drift in the neighboring land air temperature simulations, compared to the rest of the years (1982--88). Unsuccessful simulation of the extreme warm (1981) and cold (1984--85) periods implies that some variations are chaotic or unpredictable, produced by internal atmospheric dynamics and not forced by global SST patterns.

Authors:
;  [1]
  1. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Dept. of Meteorology
Publication Date:
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE, Washington, DC (United States); National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington, DC (United States); National Science Foundation, Washington, DC (United States)
OSTI Identifier:
659006
DOE Contract Number:  
FG02-93ER61691
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Journal of Climate
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 11; Journal Issue: 7; Other Information: PBD: Jul 1998
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; CLIMATIC CHANGE; AMBIENT TEMPERATURE; VOLCANOES; GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS; DATA COVARIANCES

Citation Formats

Mao, J, and Robock, A. Surface air temperature simulations by AMIP general circulation models: Volcanic and ENSO signals and systematic errors. United States: N. p., 1998. Web. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<1538:SATSBA>2.0.CO;2.
Mao, J, & Robock, A. Surface air temperature simulations by AMIP general circulation models: Volcanic and ENSO signals and systematic errors. United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<1538:SATSBA>2.0.CO;2
Mao, J, and Robock, A. 1998. "Surface air temperature simulations by AMIP general circulation models: Volcanic and ENSO signals and systematic errors". United States. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<1538:SATSBA>2.0.CO;2.
@article{osti_659006,
title = {Surface air temperature simulations by AMIP general circulation models: Volcanic and ENSO signals and systematic errors},
author = {Mao, J and Robock, A},
abstractNote = {Thirty surface air temperature simulations for 1979--88 by 29 atmospheric general circulation models are analyzed and compared with the observations over land. These models were run as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). Several simulations showed serious systematic errors, up to 4--5 C, in globally averaged land air temperature. The 16 best simulations gave rather realistic reproductions of the mean climate and seasonal cycle of global land air temperature, with an average error of {minus}0.9 C for the 10-yr period. The general coldness of the model simulations is consistent with previous intercomparison studies. The regional systematic errors showed very large cold biases in areas with topography and permanent ice, which implies a common deficiency in the representation of snow-ice albedo in the diverse models. The SST and sea ice specification of climatology rather than observations at high latitudes for the first three years (1979--81) caused a noticeable drift in the neighboring land air temperature simulations, compared to the rest of the years (1982--88). Unsuccessful simulation of the extreme warm (1981) and cold (1984--85) periods implies that some variations are chaotic or unpredictable, produced by internal atmospheric dynamics and not forced by global SST patterns.},
doi = {10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<1538:SATSBA>2.0.CO;2},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/659006}, journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = 7,
volume = 11,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 1998},
month = {Wed Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 1998}
}