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Title: Simple indicator kriging for estimating the probability of incorrectly delineating hazardous areas in a contaminated site

Abstract

The probability of incorrectly delineating hazardous areas in a contaminated site is very important for decision-makers because it indicates the magnitude of confidence that decision-makers have in determining areas in need of remediation. In this study, simple indicator kriging (SIK) was used to estimate the probability of incorrectly delineating hazardous areas in a heavy metal-contaminated site, which is located at Taoyuan, Taiwan, and is about 10 ha in area. In the procedure, the values 0 and 1 were assigned to be the stationary means of the indicator codes in the SIK model to represent two hypotheses, hazardous and safe, respectively. The spatial distribution of the conditional probability of heavy metal concentrations lower than a threshold, given each hypothesis, was estimated using SIK. Then, the probabilities of false positives ({alpha}) (i.e., the probability of declaring a location hazardous when it is not) and false negatives ({beta}) (i.e., the probability of declaring a location safe when it is not) in delineating hazardous areas for the heavy metal-contaminated site could be obtained. The spatial distribution of the probabilities of false positives and false negatives could help in delineating hazardous areas based on a tolerable probability level of incorrect delineation. In addition, delineation complicatedmore » by the cost of remediation, hazards in the environment, and hazards to human health could be made based on the minimum values of {alpha} and {beta}. The results suggest that the proposed SIK procedure is useful for decision-makers who need to delineate hazardous areas in a heavy metal-contaminated site.« less

Authors:
;  [1]
  1. National Taiwan Univ., Taipei (Taiwan, Province of China). Graduate Inst. of Agricultural Chemistry
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
655390
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Environmental Science and Technology
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 32; Journal Issue: 17; Other Information: PBD: 1 Sep 1998
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; PROBABILITY; SOILS; HAZARDOUS MATERIALS; REMEDIAL ACTION; TAIWAN; LAND POLLUTION; METALS; SITE CHARACTERIZATION; KRIGING

Citation Formats

Juang, K W, and Lee, D Y. Simple indicator kriging for estimating the probability of incorrectly delineating hazardous areas in a contaminated site. United States: N. p., 1998. Web. doi:10.1021/es9706007.
Juang, K W, & Lee, D Y. Simple indicator kriging for estimating the probability of incorrectly delineating hazardous areas in a contaminated site. United States. doi:10.1021/es9706007.
Juang, K W, and Lee, D Y. Tue . "Simple indicator kriging for estimating the probability of incorrectly delineating hazardous areas in a contaminated site". United States. doi:10.1021/es9706007.
@article{osti_655390,
title = {Simple indicator kriging for estimating the probability of incorrectly delineating hazardous areas in a contaminated site},
author = {Juang, K W and Lee, D Y},
abstractNote = {The probability of incorrectly delineating hazardous areas in a contaminated site is very important for decision-makers because it indicates the magnitude of confidence that decision-makers have in determining areas in need of remediation. In this study, simple indicator kriging (SIK) was used to estimate the probability of incorrectly delineating hazardous areas in a heavy metal-contaminated site, which is located at Taoyuan, Taiwan, and is about 10 ha in area. In the procedure, the values 0 and 1 were assigned to be the stationary means of the indicator codes in the SIK model to represent two hypotheses, hazardous and safe, respectively. The spatial distribution of the conditional probability of heavy metal concentrations lower than a threshold, given each hypothesis, was estimated using SIK. Then, the probabilities of false positives ({alpha}) (i.e., the probability of declaring a location hazardous when it is not) and false negatives ({beta}) (i.e., the probability of declaring a location safe when it is not) in delineating hazardous areas for the heavy metal-contaminated site could be obtained. The spatial distribution of the probabilities of false positives and false negatives could help in delineating hazardous areas based on a tolerable probability level of incorrect delineation. In addition, delineation complicated by the cost of remediation, hazards in the environment, and hazards to human health could be made based on the minimum values of {alpha} and {beta}. The results suggest that the proposed SIK procedure is useful for decision-makers who need to delineate hazardous areas in a heavy metal-contaminated site.},
doi = {10.1021/es9706007},
journal = {Environmental Science and Technology},
number = 17,
volume = 32,
place = {United States},
year = {1998},
month = {9}
}