skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Forecasting household demand for light-duty motor vehicles

Abstract

This report describes an operational nationwide motor vehicle demand forecasting system based on a set of empirically estimated disaggregated discrete choice models. The forecasting system represents household behavior in terms of two interrelated decisions: the number of motor vehicles to own (ownership level); and, given the ownership level decision, the specific vehicle types that are chosen. Separate models are estimated to explain vehicle type choice conditional on each ownership level. These models are each multinomial logit specifications, where the probability of choosing any given vehicle (or combination of vehicles) is a function of the utility of the chosen vehicles relative to the sum of the utilities of all feasible vehicle alternatives. Each household has the choice of maintaining its existing vehicle or replacing it with any other new or used car or light-duty truck available on the market. The utility of a given vehicle is a function of the household's travel requirements (as expressed by household size, number of workers, annual vehicle use, etc.) and vehicle attributes (price, fuel economy, roominess, etc.). These relationships are expressed in a linear-in-parameters utility function in which the empirically determined parameters express the relative importance households associate with each specific vehicle attribute. The vehiclemore » ownership level decision is also represented by a multinomial logit specification. The models are designed to explain the vehicle type choice behavior of individual households as a static holdings process. Specifically, each household is viewed as evaluating its vehicle holdings at a specific point of time and adjusting its choices so as to maximize utility. Forecasting with the motor vehicle demand models is accomplished by summing the vehicle type choice predictions over a demographically weighted sample of US households.« less

Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Booz, Allen and Hamilton, Inc., Bethesda, MD (USA)
OSTI Identifier:
6245667
Report Number(s):
DOE/OR/21400-T243
ON: DE86007474
DOE Contract Number:  
AC05-84OR21400
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Resource Relation:
Other Information: Portions of this document are illegible in microfiche products
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY; AUTOMOBILES; DEMAND; FORECASTING; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; DEMOGRAPHY; ECONOMIC ANALYSIS; HOUSEHOLDS; OWNERSHIP; SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS; USA; ECONOMICS; INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS; NORTH AMERICA; VEHICLES; 320203* - Energy Conservation, Consumption, & Utilization- Transportation- Land & Roadway; 290200 - Energy Planning & Policy- Economics & Sociology

Citation Formats

. Forecasting household demand for light-duty motor vehicles. United States: N. p., 1983. Web.
. Forecasting household demand for light-duty motor vehicles. United States.
. Sat . "Forecasting household demand for light-duty motor vehicles". United States.
@article{osti_6245667,
title = {Forecasting household demand for light-duty motor vehicles},
author = {},
abstractNote = {This report describes an operational nationwide motor vehicle demand forecasting system based on a set of empirically estimated disaggregated discrete choice models. The forecasting system represents household behavior in terms of two interrelated decisions: the number of motor vehicles to own (ownership level); and, given the ownership level decision, the specific vehicle types that are chosen. Separate models are estimated to explain vehicle type choice conditional on each ownership level. These models are each multinomial logit specifications, where the probability of choosing any given vehicle (or combination of vehicles) is a function of the utility of the chosen vehicles relative to the sum of the utilities of all feasible vehicle alternatives. Each household has the choice of maintaining its existing vehicle or replacing it with any other new or used car or light-duty truck available on the market. The utility of a given vehicle is a function of the household's travel requirements (as expressed by household size, number of workers, annual vehicle use, etc.) and vehicle attributes (price, fuel economy, roominess, etc.). These relationships are expressed in a linear-in-parameters utility function in which the empirically determined parameters express the relative importance households associate with each specific vehicle attribute. The vehicle ownership level decision is also represented by a multinomial logit specification. The models are designed to explain the vehicle type choice behavior of individual households as a static holdings process. Specifically, each household is viewed as evaluating its vehicle holdings at a specific point of time and adjusting its choices so as to maximize utility. Forecasting with the motor vehicle demand models is accomplished by summing the vehicle type choice predictions over a demographically weighted sample of US households.},
doi = {},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/6245667}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {1983},
month = {1}
}

Technical Report:
Other availability
Please see Document Availability for additional information on obtaining the full-text document. Library patrons may search WorldCat to identify libraries that may hold this item. Keep in mind that many technical reports are not cataloged in WorldCat.

Save / Share: