Perception of local survival chances: an exploratory explanation. One in a series of reports on Americans' views about civil defense issues
This report is an attempt to further our understanding of the sense of threat felt by Americans as a result of international tensions. Multivariate techniques are used to explain or predict the possible behavior of people under conditions of threat. Specifically, the analysis asks: what combination of attitudes, behaviors, and background documentation can best predict people's perceptions of survival chances in the event of nuclear war. The data are drawn from the national OCD study done in 1966, but the results would be quite similar if the data from the 1968 survey had been used. None of the behaviors measured in the survey (e.g., exposure to civil defense signs or fallout shelters, intentions about using a shelter) explained differences among people in their estimates of the proportions of people in their locality who would survive a nuclear war. Social and demographic characteristics played a minor role in explaining the differences; only age, size of community, and number in the household were significant predictors. On the other hand, attitudes about the international context and about civil defense issues were indeed important in predicting perceptions of local survival chances. It is suggested that there exists in people a main thrust or feeling about an idea such as local survival chances, with some people being generally pessimistic and others having generally optimistic mood. These generalized moods have a greater impact on estimates of survival than do past experiences or social background characteristics.
- Research Organization:
- Pittsburgh Univ., PA (USA). Dept. of Sociology
- OSTI ID:
- 6170367
- Report Number(s):
- NP-5900403; ON: DE85900403
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: Portions are illegible in microfiche products
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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