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Title: Coal gasification: An economic evaluation

Abstract

Political interest in developing the capability to produce gaseous fuel from coal in the United States has been cyclical in nature, depending primarily upon the security of the international market for oil and public attitudes toward nuclear power. Interest in coal gasification technology by private investors, however, depends primarily on the economic and technological considerations analyzed in this paper. A cost forecasting model is developed with the capability to take into account future economic and technological uncertainties associated with producing high BTU gas (a substitute for natural gas) from coal. The cost forecasting model incorporates probabilistic information on key economic and technological parameters subject to future uncertainty and simulates, by Monte Carlo methods, the costs which private investors would incur over the life of a commercial size coal gasification plant. The results suggest it is highly unlikely that the coal gasification process could produce high BTU gas more cheaply than the price at which natural gas is likely to be available.

Authors:
; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Univ. of Central Florida, Orlando, FL
OSTI Identifier:
6114143
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Journal Name:
Technol. Forecasting Social Change; (United States)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 25:4
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT; COAL GASIFICATION; ECONOMIC ANALYSIS; COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION; COST; FORECASTING; HIGH BTU GAS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; MONTE CARLO METHOD; NATURAL GAS; PRICES; ECONOMICS; ENERGY SOURCES; FLUIDS; FOSSIL FUELS; FUEL GAS; FUELS; GAS FUELS; GASES; GASIFICATION; SIMULATION; THERMOCHEMICAL PROCESSES; 010404* - Coal, Lignite, & Peat- Gasification; 015000 - Coal, Lignite, & Peat- Economic, Industrial, & Business Aspects

Citation Formats

Xander, J A, Iranmanesh, M, McNiel, D, and White, K R. Coal gasification: An economic evaluation. United States: N. p., 1984. Web. doi:10.1016/0040-1625(84)90063-5.
Xander, J A, Iranmanesh, M, McNiel, D, & White, K R. Coal gasification: An economic evaluation. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(84)90063-5
Xander, J A, Iranmanesh, M, McNiel, D, and White, K R. 1984. "Coal gasification: An economic evaluation". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(84)90063-5.
@article{osti_6114143,
title = {Coal gasification: An economic evaluation},
author = {Xander, J A and Iranmanesh, M and McNiel, D and White, K R},
abstractNote = {Political interest in developing the capability to produce gaseous fuel from coal in the United States has been cyclical in nature, depending primarily upon the security of the international market for oil and public attitudes toward nuclear power. Interest in coal gasification technology by private investors, however, depends primarily on the economic and technological considerations analyzed in this paper. A cost forecasting model is developed with the capability to take into account future economic and technological uncertainties associated with producing high BTU gas (a substitute for natural gas) from coal. The cost forecasting model incorporates probabilistic information on key economic and technological parameters subject to future uncertainty and simulates, by Monte Carlo methods, the costs which private investors would incur over the life of a commercial size coal gasification plant. The results suggest it is highly unlikely that the coal gasification process could produce high BTU gas more cheaply than the price at which natural gas is likely to be available.},
doi = {10.1016/0040-1625(84)90063-5},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/6114143}, journal = {Technol. Forecasting Social Change; (United States)},
number = ,
volume = 25:4,
place = {United States},
year = {Sun Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 1984},
month = {Sun Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 1984}
}