Estimation of geologic risks and economic ranking of exploratory prospects

Conference · Mon Feb 01 00:00:00 EST 1993 · AAPG Bulletin (American Association of Petroleum Geologists); (United States)

OSTI ID:6087231

Gomez, E B ^[1]

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1. Corpoven S.A., Caracas (Venezuela)

The major constraint on the exploratory process is the estimation of risks before drilling. In order to judge the merits of a group of exploratory prospects it is necessary to estimate the recoverable hydrocarbon volumes and their probability of success. Then, the future income generated by the prospects can be calculated and compared with the development costs of the reserves. Therefore, the decision to drill or not can be carried out using an economic criteria. For the purpose of deciding whether or not to make the investment needed for development of an exploratory area this paper presents a methodology for risk evaluation and estimation, and a technical and economic ranking, of the exploratory prospects. This methodology takes into account the risks and uncertainties and the common economic yardsticks used in the decision procedure (pay-out time, expected value, rate of return, etc.). This method can be used for explorationist and decision makers as a tool to evaluate, estimate and understand the risk analysis theory and to help in the decision making process, hence reducing uncertainties in petroleum exploration. This paper presents a discussion of the proposed methodology and a case history.

• OSTI ID: 6087231
• Report Number(s): CONF-930306-; CODEN: AABUD2
• Journal Information: AAPG Bulletin (American Association of Petroleum Geologists); (United States), Vol. 77:2; Conference: International congress of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG), Caracas (Venezuela), 14-17 Mar 1993; ISSN 0149-1423
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
HYDROCARBONS
PROSPECTING
INCOME
CALCULATION METHODS
RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
RISK ASSESSMENT
RESOURCE POTENTIAL
EVALUATION
DECISION MAKING
DRILLING
EXPLORATION
INVESTMENT
PAYBACK PERIOD
PETROLEUM
PRIMARY RECOVERY
PROFITS
ENERGY SOURCES
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
ORGANIC COMPOUNDS
290400* - Energy Planning & Policy- Energy Resources