Improving technology: Modeling energy futures for the National Energy Strategy
This report was prepared as a contribution to the formulation of the National Energy Strategy, It is an attempt to examine how commercializing and deploying known technologies might affect America's energy future. In order to do this, it was necessary to create a baseline projection of extending for 40 years, to 2030. The baseline case was then modified by about a dozen excursions. These excursions tested what would happen if particular technological or regulatory assumptions were varied: for example, if new nuclear orders and life extension of existing plants were permitted, or if improved end-use energy technologies began to filter into the capital stock. Finally, relevant groups of excursions were grouped into scenarios in an effort to see how close they could get the U.S. energy system to achieving certain possible policy objectives: reducing carbon emissions; reducing vulnerability to foreign oil sources; and reducing energy costs. This report is not intended to be construed as an actual forecast of future events. Rather, the baseline case is designed to provide perspective on how the nation's energy system might evolve if no new energy policies, laws, or regulations were adopted over the projection horizon and if the tendencies of the U.S. energy system evident today were to persist. Given the long-term nature of this report, its conclusions would have been little altered if a brief post-Kuwait invasion oil price spike had been incorporated into the projections. A limited set of energy technology and regulatory issues are examined. In the long run, technological change is one of the most important sources of economic growth. The report estimates the impact of a number of frequently discussed technologies on U.S. energy production, consumption, and prices. Most technologies considered have been demonstrated in a laboratory setting or reduced to practice, though many have not yet been adopted for commercial use. 42 refs., 56 figs., 38 tabs. (JF)
- Research Organization:
- USDOE Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC (USA)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE; USDOE, Washington, DC (USA)
- OSTI ID:
- 5903994
- Report Number(s):
- SR/NES-90-01; ON: DE91009199
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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