Long term impact of atmospheric carbon dioxide on climate. Technical report JSR-78-07. [Calculations using JASON Climate Model]

Technical Report · Sun Apr 01 00:00:00 EST 1979

OSTI ID:5851500

MacDonald, G; Abarbanel, H; Carruthers, P

If the current growth rate in the use of fossil fuels continues at 4.3% per year, then the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere can be expected to double by about 2035 provided the current partition of CO₂ between the atmosphere, biosphere, and oceans is maintained as is the current mix of fuels. Slower rates of anticipated growth of energy use lead to a doubling of the carbon content of the atmosphere sometime in the period 2040 to 2060. This report addresses the questions of the sources of atmospheric CO₂; considers distribution of the present CO₂ among the atmospheric, oceanic, and biospheric reservoir; and assesses the impact on climate as reflected by the average ground temperature at each latitude of significant increases in atmospheric CO₂. An analytic model of the atmosphere was constructed (JASON Climate Model). Calculation with this zonally averaged model shows an increase of average surface temperature of 2.4⁰ for a doubling of CO₂. The equatorial temperature increases by 0.7⁰K, while the poles warm up by 10 to 12⁰K. The warming of climate will not necessarily lead to improved living conditions everywhere. Changes in sea level, in agricultural productivity, and in water availability can be anticipated, but the dimensions of their economic, political, or social consequences can not.

• Research Organization: SRI International, Arlington, VA (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: EY-76-C-03-0115 P.A. 136
• OSTI ID: 5851500
• Report Number(s): SAN-115/136-2
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
CARBON DIOXIDE
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
AGRICULTURE
AMBIENT TEMPERATURE
CLIMATES
EARTH ATMOSPHERE
FOSSIL FUELS
POLITICAL ASPECTS
SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS
TEMPERATURE EFFECTS
WATER
CARBON COMPOUNDS
CARBON OXIDES
CHALCOGENIDES
ENERGY SOURCES
FUELS
HYDROGEN COMPOUNDS
INDUSTRY
INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS
OXIDES
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
290300* - Energy Planning & Policy- Environment
Health
& Safety
500200 - Environment
Atmospheric- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport- (-1989)
290100 - Energy Planning & Policy- Energy Analysis & Modeling