Long term impact of atmospheric carbon dioxide on climate. Technical report JSR-78-07. [Calculations using JASON Climate Model]

MacDonald, G; Abarbanel, H; Carruthers, P

Title: Long term impact of atmospheric carbon dioxide on climate. Technical report JSR-78-07. [Calculations using JASON Climate Model]

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Abstract

If the current growth rate in the use of fossil fuels continues at 4.3% per year, then the CO₂ concentration in the atmosphere can be expected to double by about 2035 provided the current partition of CO₂ between the atmosphere, biosphere, and oceans is maintained as is the current mix of fuels. Slower rates of anticipated growth of energy use lead to a doubling of the carbon content of the atmosphere sometime in the period 2040 to 2060. This report addresses the questions of the sources of atmospheric CO₂; considers distribution of the present CO₂ among the atmospheric, oceanic, and biospheric reservoir; and assesses the impact on climate as reflected by the average ground temperature at each latitude of significant increases in atmospheric CO₂. An analytic model of the atmosphere was constructed (JASON Climate Model). Calculation with this zonally averaged model shows an increase of average surface temperature of 2.4⁰ for a doubling of CO₂. The equatorial temperature increases by 0.7⁰K, while the poles warm up by 10 to 12⁰K. The warming of climate will not necessarily lead to improved living conditions everywhere. Changes in sea level, in agricultural productivity, and in water availability can be anticipated, but the dimensionsmore »« less

Authors:: MacDonald, G; Abarbanel, H; Carruthers, P

Publication Date:: 1979-04-01

Research Org.:: SRI International, Arlington, VA (USA)

OSTI Identifier:: 5851500

Report Number(s):: SAN-115/136-2

DOE Contract Number:: EY-76-C-03-0115 P.A. 136

Resource Type:: Technical Report

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Subject:: 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY; 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; CARBON DIOXIDE; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; AGRICULTURE; AMBIENT TEMPERATURE; CLIMATES; EARTH ATMOSPHERE; FOSSIL FUELS; POLITICAL ASPECTS; SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS; TEMPERATURE EFFECTS; WATER; CARBON COMPOUNDS; CARBON OXIDES; CHALCOGENIDES; ENERGY SOURCES; FUELS; HYDROGEN COMPOUNDS; INDUSTRY; INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS; OXIDES; OXYGEN COMPOUNDS; 290300* - Energy Planning & Policy- Environment, Health, & Safety; 500200 - Environment, Atmospheric- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport- (-1989); 290100 - Energy Planning & Policy- Energy Analysis & Modeling

Citation Formats


                    MacDonald, G, Abarbanel, H, and Carruthers, P. Long term impact of atmospheric carbon dioxide on climate. Technical report JSR-78-07. [Calculations using JASON Climate Model].  United States: N. p., 1979. 
        Web.

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                    MacDonald, G, Abarbanel, H, & Carruthers, P. Long term impact of atmospheric carbon dioxide on climate. Technical report JSR-78-07. [Calculations using JASON Climate Model].  United States.

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                    MacDonald, G, Abarbanel, H, and Carruthers, P. 1979.  
        "Long term impact of atmospheric carbon dioxide on climate. Technical report JSR-78-07. [Calculations using JASON Climate Model]".  United States.

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@article{osti_5851500,

  title        = {Long term impact of atmospheric carbon dioxide on climate. Technical report JSR-78-07. [Calculations using JASON Climate Model]},

  author       = {MacDonald, G and Abarbanel, H and Carruthers, P},

  abstractNote = {If the current growth rate in the use of fossil fuels continues at 4.3% per year, then the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere can be expected to double by about 2035 provided the current partition of CO2 between the atmosphere, biosphere, and oceans is maintained as is the current mix of fuels. Slower rates of anticipated growth of energy use lead to a doubling of the carbon content of the atmosphere sometime in the period 2040 to 2060. This report addresses the questions of the sources of atmospheric CO2; considers distribution of the present CO2 among the atmospheric, oceanic, and biospheric reservoir; and assesses the impact on climate as reflected by the average ground temperature at each latitude of significant increases in atmospheric CO2. An analytic model of the atmosphere was constructed (JASON Climate Model). Calculation with this zonally averaged model shows an increase of average surface temperature of 2.40 for a doubling of CO2. The equatorial temperature increases by 0.70K, while the poles warm up by 10 to 120K. The warming of climate will not necessarily lead to improved living conditions everywhere. Changes in sea level, in agricultural productivity, and in water availability can be anticipated, but the dimensions of their economic, political, or social consequences can not.},

  doi          = {},

  url          = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/5851500},
  journal      = {},
number       = ,

  volume       = ,

  place        = {United States},

  year         = {1979},

  month        = {4}

}

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