Monitoring volcano precursory activity with the materials failure approach, using rates of cumulative seismic coda length
- Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States). Dept. of Geosciences
The proportionality between the energy, E, of an elastic wave and the square of its amplitude led to the usage of Benioff diagrams'' for purposes of volcano monitoring. These diagrams show the time-integrated amplitude as [radical]E versus time. The authors propose to use accelerating cumulative coda length directly in volcano monitoring. This surrogate measure of energy'' is used for practical reasons, as it eliminates the intermediate step required for energy calculations with regional and instrument-specific constants. Rates of cumulative coda (s/day) may be used for the materials failure approach'' to eruption prediction, which fits data according to an empirical rate-acceleration relationship. The method allows numerical or graphical rate extrapolation towards the expected failure rate; eruption windows may be established. Rate series derived from either cumulative amplitude, cumulative coda, or calculated [radical]E can be analyzed by the materials failure approach equally well; neither series is favored by this method because of similar characteristics. They suggest rate interpolation from the time-integrated data over constant coda-increments instead of over constant time-increments. This results in an increasingly higher frequency of rate data towards the end of an accelerating time series. The end-weighted rate calculation emphasizes the latest precursory developments while it smooths noise at lower rates. Adjusting the applied constant coda-increment for rate calculations as a function of total encountered coda, is a technique for an automated and sequential update of the extrapolated failure time.
- OSTI ID:
- 5770773
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-921058-; CODEN: GAAPBC
- Journal Information:
- Geological Society of America, Abstracts with Programs; (United States), Vol. 24:7; Conference: 1992 annual meeting of the Geological Society of America (GSA), Cincinnati, OH (United States), 26-29 Oct 1992; ISSN 0016-7592
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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