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Title: Capital requirements for the transportaton of energy materials based on 1978 ARC estimates

Abstract

TERA's estimates of capital requirements to transport natural gas, crude oil, petroleum products, and coal in the US by 1990 are presented. Summaries of transportation investment requirements through 1990 are tabulated for Scenarios B, C, and D. Scenario A is high supply, high demand. Scenario B is a high energy demand, low oil and gas supply case and requires most capital for transportation of all energy commodities. Scenario D requires the least amount of investment in transportation and is the opposite in terms of supply-demand pressure represented by Scenario B. Scenario D is a high oil and gas supply, low energy demand scenario. Scenario C lies predictably in the middle representing a medium case for both supply and demand. Scenario C shows the highest level of investment for oil pipelines from the other scenarios, due to a supply demand balance favoring petroleum consumption. This second report covers chapters on natural gas, crude oil, petroleum products, and coal. The 1985 estimates given are based on an interpolation of the 1990 results from the 1978 year of reference.

Publication Date:
Research Org.:
TERA, Inc., Arlington, VA (USA)
OSTI Identifier:
5589305
Report Number(s):
DOE/EIA-8596-1
DOE Contract Number:
EM-77-C-01-8596
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY; 01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT; 02 PETROLEUM; 03 NATURAL GAS; COAL; TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS; NATURAL GAS; PETROLEUM; PETROLEUM PRODUCTS; CAPITAL; DEMAND FACTORS; ENERGY DEMAND; ENERGY SUPPLIES; FORECASTING; INVESTMENT; MAPS; NUMERICAL DATA; PIPELINES; RAILWAYS; RIVERS; SEAS; TABLES; TRANSPORT; USA; CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS; DATA; DATA FORMS; DEMAND; ENERGY SOURCES; FLUIDS; FOSSIL FUELS; FUEL GAS; FUELS; GAS FUELS; GASES; INFORMATION; NORTH AMERICA; STREAMS; SURFACE WATERS; 320200* - Energy Conservation, Consumption, & Utilization- Transportation; 294000 - Energy Planning & Policy- Fossil Fuels; 290700 - Energy Planning & Policy- Transport & Storage; 290200 - Energy Planning & Policy- Economics & Sociology; 013000 - Coal, Lignite, & Peat- Transport, Handling, & Storage; 022000 - Petroleum- Transport, Handling, & Storage; 032000 - Natural Gas- Transport, Handling, & Storage

Citation Formats

Not Available. Capital requirements for the transportaton of energy materials based on 1978 ARC estimates. United States: N. p., 1979. Web. doi:10.2172/5589305.
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Not Available. Capital requirements for the transportaton of energy materials based on 1978 ARC estimates. United States. doi:10.2172/5589305.
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Not Available. Mon . "Capital requirements for the transportaton of energy materials based on 1978 ARC estimates". United States. doi:10.2172/5589305. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/5589305.
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@article{osti_5589305,
title = {Capital requirements for the transportaton of energy materials based on 1978 ARC estimates},
author = {Not Available},
abstractNote = {TERA's estimates of capital requirements to transport natural gas, crude oil, petroleum products, and coal in the US by 1990 are presented. Summaries of transportation investment requirements through 1990 are tabulated for Scenarios B, C, and D. Scenario A is high supply, high demand. Scenario B is a high energy demand, low oil and gas supply case and requires most capital for transportation of all energy commodities. Scenario D requires the least amount of investment in transportation and is the opposite in terms of supply-demand pressure represented by Scenario B. Scenario D is a high oil and gas supply, low energy demand scenario. Scenario C lies predictably in the middle representing a medium case for both supply and demand. Scenario C shows the highest level of investment for oil pipelines from the other scenarios, due to a supply demand balance favoring petroleum consumption. This second report covers chapters on natural gas, crude oil, petroleum products, and coal. The 1985 estimates given are based on an interpolation of the 1990 results from the 1978 year of reference.},
doi = {10.2172/5589305},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Oct 01 00:00:00 EDT 1979},
month = {Mon Oct 01 00:00:00 EDT 1979}
}
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Technical Report:
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DOI:  10.2172/5589305
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  • Summaries of transportation investment requirements through 1990 are given for the low, medium and high scenarios. Total investment requirements for the three modes and the three energy commodities can accumulate to a $46.3 to $47.0 billion range depending on the scenario. The high price of oil, following the evidence of the last year, is projected to hold demand for oil below the recent past. Despite the overall decrease in traffic some investment in crude oil and LPG pipelines is necessary to reach new sources of supply. Although natural gas production and consumption is projected to decline through 1990, new investmentsmore » in carrying capacity also are required due to locational shifts in supply. The Alaska Natural Gas Transportation System is the dominant investment for energy transportation in the next ten years. This year's report focuses attention on waterborne coal transportation to the northeast states in keeping with a return to significant coal consumption projected for this area. A resumption of such shipments will require a completely new fleet. The investment estimates given in this report identify capital required to transport projected energy supplies to market. The requirement is strategic in the sense that other reasonable alternatives do not exist or that a shared load of new growth can be expected. Not analyzed or forecasted are investments in transportation facilities made in response to local conditions. The total investment figures, therefore, represent a minimum necessary capital improvement to respond to changes in interregional supply conditions.« less

  • This report contains TERA's estimates of capital requirements to transport natural gas, crude oil, petroleum products, and coal in the United States by 1990. The low, medium, and high world-oil-price scenarios from the EIA's Mid-range Energy Forecasting System (MEFS), as used in the 1979 Annual Report to Congress (ARC), were provided as a basis for the analysis and represent three alternative futures. TERA's approach varies by energy commodity to make best use of the information and analytical tools available. Summaries of transportation investment requirements through 1990 are given. Total investment requirements for three modes (pipelines, rails, waterways and the threemore » energy commodities can accumulate to a $49.9 to $50.9 billion range depending on the scenario. The scenarios are distinguished primarily by the world price of oil which, given deregulation of domestic oil prices, affects US oil prices even more profoundly than in the past. The high price of oil, following the evidence of the last year, is projected to hold demand for oil below the recent past.« less

  • TERA's estimates of capital requirements to transport natural gas, crude oil, petroleum products, and coal in the US by 1990 are presented. It is a continuation of a 1978 study (EAPA 5:3946) to perform a similar analysis on 1979 scenarios. Scenarios B, C, and D from the EIA's Mid-range Energy Forecasting Systems, as used in the 1979 Annual Report to Congress (ARC), were provided as a basis for the analysis and represent three alternative futures. Summaries of transportation investment requirements through 1990 are given for Scenarios B, C, and D. Total investment requirements for the three models (pipelines, railroads, waterways)more » and the three energy commodities (coal, petroleum, petroleum products, natural gas) are estimated to range between $35.3 and $42.7 billion by 1990 depending on the scenario.« less

  • Capital requirements to transport coal, crude oil, petroleum products, and natural gas in the year 1985 are estimated. These requirements are based on PIES Scenarios A, C, and E which represent three alternatives for the future. The approach used to estimate requirements consists of the following three elements: formulate interregional origin-destination energy-flow matrices for crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, and coal by using appropriate PIES scenario runs, solution files, and other relevant information; compare the above flows with data on existing facilities and networks to determine major interregional shifts and the potential need for capacity expansion in the transportationmore » of energy on the basis of prevailing modal splits; and specify, analyze, and estimate the requirements and the capital costs of major capacity improvements and increases in transportation capacity under alternative assumptions. These estimates take into account the anticipated lead times associated with different types of projects and equipment needs. The total investment requirements for the national energy transportation system to effectively serve the nation's energy needs in 1985 are estimated to be $29.6 to $31.5 billion in lower range, and $33.6 to $35.7 billion in the upper range.« less

  • ; ; ; ...
    In May 1978, Transportation and Economic Research Associates (TERA), Inc. completed a study in which information and methodologies were developed for the determination of capital requirements in the transportation of energy materials. This work was designed to aid EIA in the analysis of PIES solutions. The work consisted of the development of five algorithms which are used to estimate transportation-investment requirements associated with energy commodities and transportation modes. For the purpose of this analysis, TERA was provided with three PIES-solution scenarios for 1985. These are: Scenario A which assumes a high domestic economic rate of growth along with its correspondingmore » high demand for petroleum, as well as a high domestic supply of petroleum; Scenario C which assumes a medium level of economic growth and petroleum demand and supply; and Scenario E which assumes a low level of economic growth and domestic demand and supply for petroleum. Two PIES-related outputs used in TERA's analysis are the ''COOKIE'' reports which present activity summaries by region and ''PERUSE'' printouts of solution files which give interregional flows by energy material. Only the transportation of four energy materials, crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, and coal is considered. In estimating the capital costs of new or expanded capacity for the transportation of these materials, three transportation modes were examined: pipelines, water carriers (inland barge and deep draft vessels), and railroads. (MCW)« less