United Kingdom: estimates of future energy/GDP relationships
The UK economy is expected to grow in real terms, due for the most part to advances in productivity. An increase in the labor-force-participation rate as a result of more women entering the labor force - to about 65% - should just offset a decline in the workweek. The latter is a result of a preferential shift to more leisure time and will reach 33 hours. With productivity increasing, but at a declining rate, real GDP is projected at 50% above the 1976 level. Turning to a sectoral analysis, the number of households is expected to increase by 15% as more individuals choose to live alone. The historical shift from goods production to services is expected to continue, but at a slower pace; by the year 2000 service output is expected to reach 55% of GDP. In the transport sector, the historical shift toward the passenger car is expected to saturate at about 70% of total ton-miles, while the shift toward struck freight is expected to continue and reach 76% of total ton-miles. Goods production is expected to stagnate and could fall to 33% of GDP by 2000. Historically, E/GDP has fallen steadily in the United Kingdom due almost exclusively to industrial conservation (investment in new and more-efficient plant and equipment). Conservation should spread to all other sectors of the economy as a result of government policy. The E/GDP ratio is expected to fall by another 28% by the year 2000. This implies total energy consumption of 8.7 quads.
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Inc., TN (USA). Inst. for Energy Analysis
- DOE Contract Number:
- EY-76-C-05-0033
- OSTI ID:
- 5532085
- Report Number(s):
- ORAU/IEA-79-25(M)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
POLICY AND ECONOMY
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
ENERGY EFFICIENCY
FORECASTING
UNITED KINGDOM
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
DATA COMPILATION
EMPLOYMENT
ENERGY CONSERVATION
ENERGY SOURCES
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
LABOR
NUMERICAL DATA
TABLES
DATA
DATA FORMS
EFFICIENCY
EUROPE
INFORMATION
291000* - Energy Planning & Policy- Conservation
292000 - Energy Planning & Policy- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
320000 - Energy Conservation
Consumption
& Utilization
290200 - Energy Planning & Policy- Economics & Sociology