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Title: Probability methods applied to electric power systems

Abstract

The roots of understanding probabilistic phenomena go back to antiquity. We have been willing to bet our money on the roll of dice or similar events for centuries. Yet, when it comes to betting our lives or livelihood, we have been slow to adapt probabilistic methods to describe uncertainty. As a matter of fact, we are loath to admit a probability of failure when it comes to such structures as bridges, buildings or airplanes. Electric utility engineers the world over realize that reliability of structures and systems can be improved and money can be saved if we use a more enlightened approach to uncertainty. The technology and analytical power that is now being made available to the working engineer make that possible. It is for this reason, the International Council on Probability Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS) was formed in 1985. It is important that engineers have a forum for exchange of knowledge and ideas on subjects related to describing and coping with uncertainty. As the world becomes more complex and demands increase, it is the engineers lot to make the most efficient use possible of scarce resources. The papers contained within this document cover the design and analysismore » of transmission components, systems analysis and reliability assessment, testing of power components, systems operations planning and probabilistic analysis, power distribution systems, cost, and mathematical modeling. The individual papers have been individually cataloged and indexed.« less

Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Electric Power Research Inst., Palo Alto, CA (USA)
Sponsoring Org.:
EPRI
OSTI Identifier:
5455564
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 5455564
Report Number(s):
EPRI-EL-6555; CONF-8809416--
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: 2. international symposium on probability methods applied to electric power systems, Oakland, CA (USA), 20-23 Sep 1988
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION; 99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS//MATHEMATICS, COMPUTING, AND INFORMATION SCIENCE; POWER SYSTEMS; SYSTEMS ANALYSIS; COST; DATA BASE MANAGEMENT; DECISION MAKING; DESIGN; ELECTRIC POWER; ELECTRIC UTILITIES; LEADING ABSTRACT; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; MEETINGS; PERFORMANCE TESTING; PLANNING; POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS; POWER TRANSMISSION LINES; PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION; RELIABILITY; ABSTRACTS; DOCUMENT TYPES; ENERGY SYSTEMS; MANAGEMENT; POWER; PUBLIC UTILITIES; TESTING 240201* -- Power System Networks, Transmission & Distribution-- AC Systems-- (1990-); 990200 -- Mathematics & Computers

Citation Formats

Not Available. Probability methods applied to electric power systems. United States: N. p., 1989. Web.
Not Available. Probability methods applied to electric power systems. United States.
Not Available. Wed . "Probability methods applied to electric power systems". United States. doi:.
@article{osti_5455564,
title = {Probability methods applied to electric power systems},
author = {Not Available},
abstractNote = {The roots of understanding probabilistic phenomena go back to antiquity. We have been willing to bet our money on the roll of dice or similar events for centuries. Yet, when it comes to betting our lives or livelihood, we have been slow to adapt probabilistic methods to describe uncertainty. As a matter of fact, we are loath to admit a probability of failure when it comes to such structures as bridges, buildings or airplanes. Electric utility engineers the world over realize that reliability of structures and systems can be improved and money can be saved if we use a more enlightened approach to uncertainty. The technology and analytical power that is now being made available to the working engineer make that possible. It is for this reason, the International Council on Probability Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS) was formed in 1985. It is important that engineers have a forum for exchange of knowledge and ideas on subjects related to describing and coping with uncertainty. As the world becomes more complex and demands increase, it is the engineers lot to make the most efficient use possible of scarce resources. The papers contained within this document cover the design and analysis of transmission components, systems analysis and reliability assessment, testing of power components, systems operations planning and probabilistic analysis, power distribution systems, cost, and mathematical modeling. The individual papers have been individually cataloged and indexed.},
doi = {},
journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Nov 01 00:00:00 EST 1989},
month = {Wed Nov 01 00:00:00 EST 1989}
}

Conference:
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  • Probability methods for assessing the security of operating electric power systems are reviewed. the goal is to provide the operator with consistent, on-line indication of system security as a guide for near-term operating decisions. Mathematical models are described, and data requirements are outlined. Desirable areas of future investigation are listed. (6 diagrams, 3 graphs)
  • Large increases in the complexity of shipboard electric loads as well as development of electric drive, integrated electric drive and pulsed power systems make manifest the present and future importance of naval electric power systems. The most crucial attribute of these systems is their ability to fulfill their function in the presence of large-signal perturbations. Fundamental differences between shipboard and commercial electric power systems make all but the most general nonlinear, large-signal stability analyses inappropriate for the design and assessment of naval electric power systems. The tightly coupled and compact nature of shipboard systems are best accommodated by composite systemmore » stability analyses. Composite system methods, based upon Lyapunov's direct method, require that each component's stability be represented by a Lyapunov function. A new Lyapunov function which is based upon co-energy is developed for 3-phase synchronous machines. This use of co-energy is generalizable to all electromechanical energy conversion devices. The co-energy-based Lyapunov function is implemented as a stability organ which generates waveforms at information terminals of a device object in the object oriented simulation environment of WAVESIM. Single generator simulation results are used to acquire a measure of the over sufficiency of the co-energy-based Lyapunov function.« less
  • Large blackouts are typically caused by cascading failure propagating through a power system by means of a variety of processes. Because of the wide range of time scales, mulitple interacting processes, and the hugh number of possible interactions, the simulation and analysis of cascading blackouts is extremely complicated. This paper defines cascading failure for blackouts and gives an initial review of the current understanding, industrial tools, and the challenges and emerging methods of analysis and simulation.
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