Estimation of the derivatives of generation system reliability indices in Monte Carlo simulation

Journal Article · Mon Nov 01 00:00:00 EST 1993 · IEEE Transactions on Power Systems (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers); (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1109/59.260944· OSTI ID:5445893

Ahmad, M M; Debs, A; Wardi, Y ^[1]

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1. Georgia Inst. of Tech., Atlanta, GA (United States). School of Electrical Engineering

Planning and scheduling of power system operation for future loads involves extensive studies of reliability analysis and production costing to ensure secure and economical supply of electric energy. Sensitivity analysis plays an important role in fine tuning the operating plans in the presence of various uncertainties. In this paper, the application of a recently developed technique known as Perturbation Analysis (PA) to the generation system reliability analysis using Monte Carlo simulation is presented. Specifically, the PA is used to find the derivatives of some of the reliability indices. Starting with a general introduction of the Monte Carlo simulation, the power system model for the application of PA is described. This is followed by a thorough discussion of the generation and propagation of perturbations to estimate the derivatives during the chronological simulation. A numerical examples is presented in which the PA derivative estimates of a 6 unit thermal system are compared to the estimates obtained from analytical methods. The paper concludes with the suggestions for future work needed to expand the application of PA in this area.

• OSTI ID: 5445893
• Journal Information: IEEE Transactions on Power Systems (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers); (United States), Vol. 8:4; ISSN 0885-8950
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION
POWER SYSTEMS
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
RELIABILITY
POWER DEMAND
STOCHASTIC PROCESSES
DEMAND
ENERGY SYSTEMS
SIMULATION
240100* - Power Systems- (1990-)