Application of a time-series methodology to Federal program allocations. [Modified Box and Jenkins method]

Technical Report · Tue Nov 01 00:00:00 EST 1977

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/5249586· OSTI ID:5249586

Bronfman, B. H.

Time-series analysis provides a useful tool in the evaluation of public policy outputs. It is shown that the general Box and Jenkins method, when extended to allow for multiple interrupts, enables researchers simultaneously to examine changes in drift and level of a series, and to select the best fit model for the series. As applied to urban renewal allocations, results show significant changes in the level of the series, corresponding to changes in party control of the Executive. No support is given to the ''incrementalism'' hypotheses as no significant changes in drift are found.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-26
• OSTI ID: 5249586
• Report Number(s): ORNL/TM-6116
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING
POLICY AND ECONOMY
FEDERAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS
TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
URBAN AREAS
ALLOCATIONS
DECISION MAKING
ECONOMIC POLICY
ENERGY POLICY
EVALUATION
FINANCING
MAINTENANCE
REPAIR
RESEARCH PROGRAMS
MATHEMATICS
290200* - Energy Planning & Policy- Economics & Sociology
290100 - Energy Planning & Policy- Energy Analysis & Modeling