Monte Carlo techniques for quantitative uncertainty analysis in public health risk assessments

Journal Article · Sun Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 1992 · Risk Analysis; (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1992.tb01307.x· OSTI ID:5227085

Thompson, K M; Burmaster, D E; Crouch, E A ^[1]

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1. Alceon Corporation, Cambridge, MA (United States)

Most public health risk assessments assume and combine a series of average, conservative, and worst-case values to derive a conservative point estimate of risk. This procedure has major limitations. This paper demonstrates a new methodology for extended uncertainty analyses in public health risk assessments using Monte Carlo techniques. The extended method begins as do some conventional methods--with the preparation of a spreadsheet to estimate exposure and risk. This method, however, continues by modeling key inputs as random variables described by probability density functions (PDFs). Overall, the technique provides a quantitative way to estimate the probability distributions for exposure and health risks within the validity of the model used. As an example, this paper presents a simplified case study for children playing in soils contaminated with benzene and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP).

• OSTI ID: 5227085
• Journal Information: Risk Analysis; (United States), Vol. 12:1; ISSN 0272-4332
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTANT EFFECTS ON LIVING ORGS. AND BIOL. MAT.
BENZENE
RISK ASSESSMENT
BENZOPYRENE
MONTE CARLO METHOD
HEALTH HAZARDS
MAN
NEOPLASMS
PUBLIC HEALTH
ANIMALS
AROMATICS
CONDENSED AROMATICS
DISEASES
HAZARDS
HYDROCARBONS
MAMMALS
ORGANIC COMPOUNDS
PRIMATES
VERTEBRATES
560300* - Chemicals Metabolism & Toxicology