Overview of changes to the Production of Onshore Lower-48 Oil and Gas Model Methodology
The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides historical energy data as well as extensive forecasts for energy activities to the general public. This need to provide reliable and relevant forecasts has led to the recent development of a model to forecast oil and natural gas supply activities in the midterm, through 1990 or 1995. The model is named PROLOG: Production of Onshore Lower-48 Oil and Gas. The PROLOG model forecasts annual oil and natural gas production activities for six onshore regions of the Lower-48 States for a specified time horizon based on expected price paths for both oil and natural gas. The six PROLOG regions appear in Figure 1. The primary activities are exploratory and developmental drilling. Forecasts values include drilling levels and the reserve additions from exploratory drilling as well as production from all flowing wells. The model employs a linear programming framework to determine the optimal drilling levels that maximize the expected present value profits stemming from the drilling projects. Drilling activities are differentiated by category. Oil and natural gas drilling are evaluated separately for each subclass of drilling. Exploratory and developmental drilling are treated separately, with developmental drilling further subdivided by the type of reserves to be developed. The major distinction in the nature of drilling within the model lies between exploration and development. Exploration yields new additions to the stock of known reserves. Development determines the rate of production from the stock of known reserves.
- Research Organization:
- USDOE Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC. Office of Oil and Gas
- OSTI ID:
- 5187894
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/EIA-0442; ON: DE84009546
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: Portions are illegible in microfiche products
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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